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D2 Football Bubble Watch: Who Can Punch A Playoff Ticket? 🎟️

D2 Football Bubble Watch: Who Can Punch A Playoff Ticket? 🎟️

Which D2 football teams are near the playoff cut line? A look at the programs to watch in each Super Region as the 2026 race develops.

Oct 28, 2026 by R. R. Ellis
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Kutztown vs Assumption Football Highlights | 2026 D2 Football Highlights7:03

It's that time of the season. Let's call it the point when the rubber meets the road. If your D2 football team has won five or six games by the end of October, they've given themselves at least a whisper of a chance to make the D2 playoffs. 

The NPI rankings were implemented this year, and so far, the robots have calculated ruthlessly.

Ferris State wasn't even among the top four teams in the first set of NPI rankings. That's correct: the team that hasn't lost since the summer of the Paris Olympics was not ranked No. 1. Still, that leaves the teams near the cut line with only one thing to do: win out.

That is especially true for the four teams sitting immediately below the cut line in their respective Super Regions: Assumption, West Alabama, Northern State and Ouachita Baptist.

So, in the spirit of ranking Harlon Hill Trophy candidates with banquet chairs, let's rank these D2 playoff contenders with tickets 🎟️.

The D2 Playoff Cut Line

Each team currently ranks No. 9 in its Super Region. All kickoff times are Eastern.

No. 9 Assumption (5-2) 🎟️🎟️🎟️🎟️

Assumption is only 0.395 NPI points behind No. 8 Indiana (PA). The Greyhounds have the most favorable remaining path of the four teams. They have won five consecutive games after starting 0-2, and their schedule includes a second game against Pace, which Assumption defeated earlier this season.

  • Oct. 31 vs. Post - 12:00 PM ET
  • Nov. 7 vs. Franklin Pierce - 12:00 PM ET
  • Nov. 14 at Pace - 12:00 PM ET

No. 9 Ouachita Baptist (6-2) 🎟️🎟️🎟️

Ouachita Baptist is 0.589 NPI points behind No. 8 Central Missouri. The Tigers have won four games in a row and have matchups against Northwestern Oklahoma State and Southwestern Oklahoma State remaining. If they win both, they can put themselves in a strong position to make the playoffs by defeating Henderson State (FloCollege No. 14), which is currently No. 7 in Super Region 4 and above the cut line. That finale gives Ouachita Baptist the best late NPI opportunity among the four teams listed.

  • Oct. 31 at Northwestern Oklahoma State - 2:00 PM ET
  • Nov. 7 vs. Southwestern Oklahoma State - 2:00 PM ET
  • Nov. 14 at Henderson State - 2:00 PM ET

No. 9 Northern State (6-2) 🎟️🎟️

Northern State is 0.936 NPI points behind No. 8 Tiffin, the largest gap among the four No. 9 teams. The Wolves play Augustana (FloCollege RV) this weekend, and a victory could strengthen their chances of moving up. Games against Minot State and Jamestown also give Northern State a realistic path to winning out. However, closing the gap on Tiffin may require some help from the Dragons' remaining opponents.

  • Oct. 31 vs. Augustana - 7:00 PM ET
  • Nov. 7 at Minot State - 2:00 PM ET
  • Nov. 14 vs. Jamestown - 3:00 PM ET

No. 9 West Alabama (5-3) 🎟️

West Alabama is only 0.057 NPI points behind No. 8 Newberry, the smallest gap among the four No. 9 teams. The problem is that the Tigers have dropped their last two games and now face a surging Valdosta State team (FloCollege No. 15). If they can dispatch the Blazers, they should be favored against Monroe. West Alabama then closes against independent Northeastern State, which is ranked No. 11 in Super Region 4. The Tigers must therefore face two teams involved in regional playoff races over the final three weeks.

  • Oct. 31 vs. Valdosta State - 2:00 PM ET
  • Nov. 7 vs. Monroe - 2:00 PM ET
  • Nov. 14 at Northeastern State - 1:00 PM ET

D2 Playoff Bubble Teams By NPI

NPI rankings through games played Oct. 24, 2026.

Super Region 1

  • No. 7 Bowie State (4-2) - 54.343 NPI
  • No. 8 Indiana (PA) (5-3) - 53.984 NPI

Current Playoff Cut Line

  • No. 9 Assumption (5-2) - 53.589 NPI
  • No. 10 Johnson C. Smith (6-2) - 53.380 NPI
  • No. 11 California (PA) (5-3) - 53.102 NPI

Super Region 2

  • No. 7 Mars Hill (5-2) - 56.513 NPI
  • No. 8 Newberry (4-2) - 54.462 NPI

Current Playoff Cut Line

  • No. 9 West Alabama (5-3) - 54.405 NPI
  • No. 10 Tuskegee (4-3) - 53.394 NPI
  • No. 11 Valdosta State (4-1) - 53.182 NPI
  • No. 12 UNC Pembroke (6-2) - 52.775 NPI

Super Region 3

  • No. 7 Minnesota Duluth (6-2) - 58.237 NPI
  • No. 8 Tiffin (6-2) - 56.930 NPI

Current Playoff Cut Line

  • No. 9 Northern State (6-2) - 55.994 NPI
  • No. 10 Augustana (SD) (6-2) - 54.305 NPI
  • No. 11 MSU Moorhead (5-3) - 53.031 NPI

Super Region 4

  • No. 7 Henderson State (7-1) - 57.703 NPI
  • No. 8 Central Missouri (5-3) - 56.770 NPI

Current Playoff Cut Line

  • No. 9 Ouachita Baptist (6-2) - 56.181 NPI
  • No. 10 Washburn (5-2-1) - 55.854 NPI
  • No. 11 Northeastern State (4-1) - 55.739 NPI
  • No. 12 East Central (6-2) - 55.485 NPI
  • No. 13 Colorado School of Mines (5-2-1) - 55.481 NPI

FloCollege D2 Football Rankings Week 8

  1. Ferris State (8-0), Prev. 1
  2. Harding (8-0), Prev. 2
  3. CSU Pueblo (8-0), Prev. 3
  4. Slippery Rock (8-0), Prev. 5
  5. Kutztown (8-0), Prev. 4
  6. Minnesota State (8-0), Prev. 6
  7. Western Colorado (8-0), Prev. 7
  8. Northwood (8-0), Prev. 8
  9. Davenport (8-0), Prev. 9
  10. Emporia State (8-0), Prev. 10
  11. Northwest Missouri State (6-1), Prev. 11
  12. Findlay (7-1), Prev. 13
  13. Carson-Newman (7-1), Prev. 14
  14. North Greenville (7-1), Prev. 17
  15. Valdosta State (5-1), Prev. 16
  16. Henderson State (7-1), Prev. 18
  17. Michigan Tech (6-2), Prev. 12
  18. Virginia Union (7-1), Prev. 20
  19. East Stroudsburg (7-1), Prev. 23
  20. Benedict (7-1), Prev. 22
  21. Central Washington (6-2), Prev. 21
  22. Minnesota Duluth (6-2), Prev. 25
  23. West Liberty (7-1), Prev. RV
  24. Virginia State (7-1), Prev. RV
  25. Ouachita Baptist (6-2), Prev. RV

Received Votes:

Johnson C. Smith (6-2), Assumption (5-2), UNC Pembroke (7-2), Midwestern State (6-2), Tiffin (6-2), Augustana (S.D.) (6-2), Grand Valley State (5-3), Newberry (6-2), Kentucky State (7-2), Southeastern Oklahoma State (6-2)

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