Keep your arms and legs inside the bubble at all times, folks. And whatever you do, don't get too comfortable.
The FCS playoff ride took another sharp turn in Week 4. Campbell and Colgate keep climbing, Youngstown State just shot into the Top 10, and Mercer has somehow found itself strapped into the last car. Meanwhile, Rhode Island and Villanova might want to check whether their tickets are still valid.
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Four weeks into Bubble Watch, the FCS rollercoaster is only getting bumpier. Southern Illinois is ranked but still standing outside the gates, Elon Football is banging on the door and the MVFC continues to treat its playoff contenders like bumper cars.
Welcome back to the bubble, folks! Please remain seated until November.
FCS Playoff Predictions After Week 4
A quick refresher: The 24-team FCS playoff field consists of 11 automatic qualifiers and 13 at-large selections. Sixteen teams are seeded, with the top eight receiving first-round byes.
The rankings below are from the latest AFCA FCS Coaches Poll. The seeds are mine.
Projected FCS Playoff Seeds
Proj. Seed | Rank | Team | Conference | Bid Type
- No. 1 Montana State — Big Sky — AQ
- No. 2 South Dakota State — MVFC — AQ
- No. 3 Tarleton — UAC — AQ
- No. 4 Montana — Big Sky — At-large
- No. 5 Stephen F. Austin — Southland — AQ
- No. 6 Lehigh — Patriot League — AQ
- No. 7 North Dakota — MVFC — At-large
- No. 8 Tennessee Tech — SoCon — AQ
- No. 9 Austin Peay — UAC — At-large
- No. 10 Youngstown State — MVFC — At-large
- No. 11 Illinois State — MVFC — At-large
- No. 13 Lamar — Southland — At-large
- No. 14 Idaho State — Big Sky — At-large
- No. 15 UC Davis — Big Sky — At-large
- No. 24 Campbell — CAA — AQ
- No. 16 South Dakota — MVFC — At-large
Projected Unseeded FCS Playoff Teams
Proj. Seed | Rank | Team | Conference | Bid Type
- Unseeded | No. 19 Northern Arizona — Big Sky — At-large
- Unseeded | No. 17 Richmond — Patriot League — At-large
- Unseeded | No. 20 Colgate — Patriot League — At-large
- Unseeded | No. 21 Mercer — SoCon — At-large
- Unseeded | No. 22 Harvard — Ivy League — AQ
- Unseeded | NR Robert Morris — NEC — AQ
- Unseeded | NR Dayton — Pioneer Football League — AQ
- Unseeded | NR Southeast Missouri State — OVC — AQ
Last Four In
- Northern Arizona: 3-2 looks a lot better when the losses are FBS Arizona and No. 1 Montana State.
- Richmond: The Spiders are 4-1, ranked No. 17 and just beat Furman 13-9. They're hanging around.
- Colgate: A 4-1 record, a win over Villanova and only a three-point loss at FBS Central Michigan.
- Mercer: The final ticket goes to the Bears. They're 3-2 and No. 21, but there isn't much breathing room.
First Four Out
- Elon: 4-1 and sitting just outside the Top 25 with 55 votes. The loss to Rhode Island makes me nervous.
- Southern Illinois: Ranked No. 25, but that upcoming schedule is terrifying. They have three top 15 teams in a row.
- Chattanooga: Three straight wins have brought the Mocs right back into the conversation.
- Stony Brook: Still lurking at 3-2, but a Week 5 bye means everyone else gets a chance to improve their case.
Six FCS Playoff Bubble Games To Watch In Week 5
- No. 19 Northern Arizona at No. 14 Idaho State: Last Four In vs. our No. 13 seed. Somebody's résumé is changing.
- No. 20 Colgate at No. 22 Harvard: Colgate can go from bubble team to potential seed conversation in a hurry.
- No. 10 Youngstown State at No. 25 Southern Illinois: SIU wants in? Beat a team we're seeding 10th.
- Elon at New Hampshire: Our first team out can get to 5-1 with another CAA road win. Flo's CAA Game of the Week.
- Mercer at VMI: When you're holding the final at-large spot, these are the games you cannot give away.
- Chattanooga at ETSU: Four straight wins would make the Mocs increasingly difficult to ignore.
I’m Still Rocking With The Camels
Last week, Campbell was unranked.
I didn't care.
I made the Camels my projected CAA champion anyway and finished the argument with five words: I'm rocking with the Camels.
Nothing has changed. Well, except now I have receipts.
Campbell beat Hampton 44-20, improved to 4-1 overall and 2-0 in CAA play and finally cracked the AFCA Coaches Poll at No. 24.
Kamden Sixkiller threw for 308 yards and five touchdowns in the win, giving him 13 touchdown passes through five games. Campbell now leads the CAA in total offense and passing offense.
So I'm doubling down.
Not only are the Camels still my CAA automatic qualifier, they're now my No. 15 seed.
Rhode Island dropped completely out of the Top 25, leaving Campbell as the CAA's lone representative in the AFCA poll.
The Penguins Just Waddled Right Into The Top 10
Last week's headline was pretty simple: Don't Let Youngstown State's 2-2 Record Fool You.
I kept the Penguins seeded at No. 13 despite those two losses because they came against FBS Kentucky and No. 2 South Dakota State.
Then No. 12 South Dakota came to town.
Youngstown State won 47-28.
The Penguins jumped three spots to No. 10 in the AFCA poll, and that's exactly where they land in this projection.
South Dakota doesn't disappear. Its two losses are to FBS Boise State and Youngstown State, so the Coyotes still grab my final seed at No. 16.
But remember last week when I said the MVFC was going to eat itself? Dinner has been served.
Mercer Finds A Ticket To Ride
Mercer almost lost its ticket to the bubble.
The Bears responded to their loss to Furman by beating Abilene Christian 34-17 on the road. They're 3-2, ranked No. 21 and back inside my projected field.
Barely.
Mercer gets the final at-large ticket over Elon, Southern Illinois and Chattanooga, but getting through the height check doesn't guarantee the Bears get to stay for the whole ride.
A trip to VMI comes next, and with three teams waiting in line right behind them, one bad Saturday could send Mercer straight to the exit.
Rhode Island And Villanova Are Running Out Of Road
Last week, I said not to bury Rhody yet.
Well... about that.
The path back into the field was pretty straightforward: start stacking wins.
Instead, Rhode Island followed its 56-24 loss to Stony Brook by losing 22-18 to a North Carolina A&T team that entered the game winless.
The Rams are now 2-3 and have gone from a projected seed two weeks ago to outside the Top 25 and outside even my First Four Out.
Villanova isn't doing much better.
The Wildcats had a direct opportunity to change the bubble against Colgate and lost 28-21, dropping to 2-3 and falling out of the rankings.
Neither season is dead. There is still plenty of football left. But the bubble isn't exactly known for its patience.
Southern Illinois Is Ranked. The Bubble Does Not Care.
Congratulations to Southern Illinois! The Salukis are back in the Top 25.
Their prize? Three ranked opponents.
They have Youngstown, South Dakota, and Illinois State in consecutive weeks.
Ouch.
Southern Illinois is 3-2 and No. 25 in the AFCA poll, but I'm still leaving the Salukis outside the playoff field.
This is where the difference between a ranking and a playoff prediction matters.
SIU has done enough to deserve its current ranking. I'm trying to predict whether it will have enough wins when November arrives, and that upcoming three-game stretch features three teams seeded in this projection.
Want into the field? Start by beating the Penguins.
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