Every year it feels like we get one, great debate down the home-stretch of the College Football Playoff race. 

Last year, it was, “Should Georgia get in based on their close loss to Alabama in the SEC title game?” 

The year before, it was a one-loss, non-champion Alabama vs. a two-loss Big Ten champ Ohio State for the final spot. 

In 2016 it was Ohio State and Penn State battling it out, with all sorts of qualifiers to determined who deserved to be in, and who didn’t. 

This year, assuming that LSU beats Georgia in the SEC title game there is another great debate that is seemingly ready to be waged: Who should get the final spot in 2019? A one-loss, Pac-12 champion Oregon team? Or a one-loss, non-champion Alabama?

The caveat of course? Oregon’s one loss will have come at the hands of Auburn. And Alabama’s best win will also come at the hands of… Auburn. 

Seriously, you can’t make this stuff up. It’s like the whole season was orchestrated by some TV exec trying to create the most, possible interest in the final College Football Playoff ranking. 

That’s right, it’s a juicy debate, one that has already picked up steam, with some of the biggest names in the media already arguing the merits of both sides on social media.

But while this argument makes for a great Twitter debate, the bottom line is that if things go to plan, and Oregon wins out and beats an 11-1 Utah team in the Pac-12 title game, there is no real debate at all. 

Oregon will make the playoff and Alabama won’t. What seems like a complicated argument really is pretty simple.

(Full-disclosure, I actually think we’re much more likely to see an Oregon vs. one-loss Oklahoma debate on the final day of the season than Oregon vs. Alabama. But since this is the biggest talking point in the sport right now, with Auburn as the very obvious inflection point, let’s stick to these two teams). 

Before we get into the “Bama vs. Oregon, win over Auburn against loss to Auburn” let’s backtrack and go over some basics. Because they really are important in framing this conversation. 

That’s because while the Auburn talking point is an important one, there is another thing that Alabama fans are chirping about this morning. It’s the simple fact that as things stand, Alabama is currently ahead of Oregon in the rankings. The Tide are No. 5 and the Ducks are No. 6. And if No. 4 Georgia loses to LSU, it makes all too much sense to slide Alabama to the No. 4 spot.

But it isn’t that simple, and this is the most important part of this debate to know right now: The committee makes its rankings week-to-week and based only on the information that they have on hand at that moment. They also adjust the rankings as new information comes in. That’s why, for example, LSU jumped Ohio State into the No. 1 position a few weeks ago, even though Ohio State hadn’t lost. To its credit, the committee got new information (LSU winning at Alabama) and adjusted its rankings accordingly.

That’s also why the “Alabama is currently No. 4 right now” debate doesn’t really matter. To the credit of the committee, they haven’t really considered what Alabama will look like without Tua Tagovailoa available, because we really haven’t seen Alabama without him. The committee isn’t going to punish Alabama for not having Tua, until they actually see them without him. 

It’s worth noting that as mentioned above, the committee also adjusts based on results on the field. It’s very likely that if Oregon wins convincingly this week against a decent Arizona State team that the Ducks could jump Alabama (which plays an FCS school) in next week’s rankings. It’s also possible that the committee could then put the Tide back in at No. 5 after the Iron Bowl. 

At that point, plenty of people would argue that the committee is doing that just to “create controversy.” When in reality, they’re doing exactly what we want them to do: Adjust the rankings based on the actual results on the field and information available to them. 

Still though, that doesn’t factor in the most important part of the Alabama vs. Oregon debate: One team would have a head-to-head win over the team that the other lost to. 

That should matter, right? 

Well, it certainly would. The question is “how much?” 

And that’s where Alabama would be in trouble.

The reason is pretty simple. That’s because according to the actual criteria the committee uses to pick the four playoff teams, there is one big qualifier for a team that doesn’t win its conference to be considered. A non-conference champion can only get in over a conference champion, if that non-champion is “unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.” 

Take the word “unequivocal” however you want. But unless Alabama does something truly otherworldly against Auburn it will be hard to make the case that they are “unequivocally” better than a one-loss, Pac-12 champion Oregon team. Especially since they no longer have Tua.

With all due respect to Mac Jones, it’s hard to envision him pulling a Cardale Jones and playing so well that you could make a case that the Tide are just as good, if not better, with him in the lineup than Tua. And it’s not like Oregon got crushed by Auburn. They lost on a hail mary, with nine seconds left on what was essentially the final play of the game. Not only did Auburn not dominate Oregon in that game, the Tigers literally didn’t have a lead until the final 10 seconds.  

Therefore, if Oregon wins out, and beats a one-loss Utah squad in the title game, they will have just about every major metric in their favor. The Ducks will be a conference champ, Alabama will not be not. Assuming USC wins this weekend (they are currently ranked No. 24) and Utah doesn’t totally fall apart, Oregon will have more Top 25 wins (two) than Alabama (one). And Oregon’s best win (over a Top 10 Utah team) will be significantly better than Alabama’s best win (over a four-loss Auburn team). 

So when you think about it in that context, it’s pretty hard for Alabama to argue that they are “unequivocally” better than Oregon, even with the head-to-head win over Auburn. Especially when you factor in that again, Oregon played well against Auburn and also that the Iron Bowl is a week before the championship games. That will give Oregon one extra weekend, against one elite opponent (Utah) to make its case while Alabama was sitting at home. 

Sure, you could argue “Well, what happens if Alabama absolutely blows out Auburn?” It’s a fair question. It’s also fair to ask: “What if Martians invade Earth and we have to call the College Football Playoff off?” 

Honestly, I’m not sure what is more likely to happen. In its last three trips to Auburn, Alabama has lost twice. And even if the Tide win next week, a blowout feels unlikely considering the way Auburn has already played three Top 15 teams this year (at LSU, at Florida, Georgia) and played all three teams competitively. Two were within a touchdown. Because of their style of play it just doesn’t seem likely that anyone will blow out this Auburn team.  

Now in the end, all this could become moot going forward. Georgia could beat LSU in the SEC title game. Oklahoma could go on some crazy run for the ages and make their case for No. 4. Or, Oregon, Alabama or both could lose by then, opening up the door to the Big 12 champ or Utah if they win the Pac-12 title. 

But as for an Oregon vs. Alabama? 

While it makes for a great Twitter debate, it really is no debate at all.

If everything goes as expected and Oregon wins out, they will end up in the playoff.