It’s Week 12. That’s nuts—but not as nuts as, once again, siding with an uninspiring Buckeyes squad with a big spread to cover on the road, am I right?

Buckle up sports ball fans. We’re back with another edition of the world famous Cover 4.

Cincinnati (+7) at Central Florida

Saturday, Nov. 17 at 7 PM CT | Spectrum Stadium, Orlando, Fla.

All eyes are on Central Florida. College Gameday is on site. The game is airing in ABC’s primetime slot. Save for the Peach Bowl last season, this is the biggest moment in program history—and you could make an argument that it’s even bigger.

That’s great news for Luke Fickel and his Bearcats.

Cincinnati is playing with house money at this point in a season during which the fan base’s realistic expectation for victories was surpassed about three wins ago. And its playing with a defense that has, after a key position switch (Bryan Wright’s move from DE to MLB) and an infusion of youth in the secondary, transformed from one of the nation’s worst to one of the nation’s best.

All of the pressure—much of it self-imposed—rests on the shoulders of the Knights. Cincinnati will be free to crash the party.

The Pick: Bearcats (+7)

Arkansas at Mississippi State — UNDER 46

Saturday, Nov. 17 at 11 AM CT | Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss.

Say what you want about the Razorbacks, but, as was made evident in last week’s home loss to LSU, this team has not quit. That’s a major credit to Chad Morris and the rest of his coaching staff.

That being said, I’m not exactly sure how Arkansas is going to score against Mississippi State.

The Bulldogs’ defensive line is the best in college football and they’ll be breathing down the neck of a quarterback in Ty Storey who has struggled with consistency all season. And forget about running the football.

For the first time this season, we’re pitching you the total. For Arkansas to make it to double-digit points would be an accomplishment. Conversely, the Razorbacks’ defense is solid—if not spectacular—and isn’t going to allow State to run wild.

The Pick: Under 46

Arizona State at Oregon (-3.5)

Saturday, Nov. 17 at 9:30 PM CT | Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore.

Clearly, I’m just going to continue living and dying—mostly, dying—with Oregon this season.

Oregon is a better team than Arizona State. Oregon has the best player on the field in Justin Herbert. Oregon is at home. 

Give us the Ducks. We’ll never learn.

The Pick: Ducks (-3.5)

Northwestern at Minnesota (-2)

Saturday, Nov. 17 at 11 AM CT | TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minn.

So, here’s the thing. This line has moved 5.5 points since I handed out the Gophers as my Very Good Dog on Tuesday.

Who knew the level of influence Bootleg has on the world!

Quite frankly, betting against a Pat Fitzgerald-led underdog does not seem anywhere close to as attractive an idea as taking Minnesota did originally.

So, instead of just surfing the 5.5-point swing and giving out the Gophers -2, we have a contingency plan:

Ohio State (-14) at Maryland

Saturday, Nov. 17 at 11 AM | Maryland Stadium, College Park, Md.

Misfortune just sort of abounds at Maryland for whatever reason.

Quarterback Kasim Hill has, once again, had his season cut short by a torn ACL. The Terps, after all they’ve been through this season, are reeling, and, at some point, Ohio State has to genuinely dominate a lesser opponent … right?

Give us the Buckeyes to roll in front of a half-empty stadium in College Park.

The Pick: Ohio State (-14)