2018 Confidence Picks presented by Rocket Mortgage by Quicken Loans

Cover 4: We're Getting Cocky In Nashville

Cover 4: We're Getting Cocky In Nashville

Another week, another crack at picking narrowing down our list of college football picks to four in an effort to serve the people.

Sep 21, 2018 by Kolby Paxton
Cover 4: We're Getting Cocky In Nashville

If you follow—and trust—our Very Good Dogs segment on Bootleg, you didn’t just win with a pair of underdogs last week, you had the nerve to take the moneyline.

The Cover 4 is part of Confidence Picks presented by Rocket Mortgage by Quicken Loans

And just a few hours later, you were undoubtedly flexing your newfound cashflow all over your local bar and pub whilst trying to figure out why TCU had a guy laying down in his own end zone.

Hopefully that made up for Bratke putting all of us on Colorado State. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Northern Illinois (+11) at Florida State

Saturday, 2:30 PM CT | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL

If you’re looking for some sort of critical analysis on this one, sorry to disappoint. The pick, here, goes something like this:

Northern Illinois is probably going bowling in December and gave Utah all it wanted two weeks ago—both thanks, in large part, to a very good defense headlined by pass rusher Sutton Smith.

The Seminoles are among the most god-awful offenses in the country. Their offensive line may be the worst in the country. Their once-awesome quarterback appears on edge—and who can blame him?—every time he attempts to throw from the pocket. Their Offensive S&P+ ranks 117 out of 130.

(That’s bad.)

Here's expecting Smith to become very well-acquainted with the aforementioned Deondre Francois.

(That's also bad if you're a Seminole.)

The Pick: Northern Illinois (+11)

Wisconsin at Iowa (+3.5) 

Saturday, 7:30 PM CT | Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA

The Battle for the Heartland Trophy returns to Kinnick Stadium—under the lights, no less—for a game that would’ve been the bee’s knees had Wisconsin not laid an egg, at home, vs. BYU last week.

Full disclosure, we were wishin’… and hopin’… and thinkin’… and prayin’ that Iowa would roll out in the Ohio State Terminator uniforms of a season ago for this one. Sadly, the clues we’ve obtained since have led us to believe that will not be the case.

Still, at home, under the lights, with that defense and a little Kinnick Magic? Iowa’s a live dog.

The Pick: Iowa (+3.5)

Minnesota (+3) at Maryland

Saturday, 11 AM CT | Maryland Stadium, College Park, MD

Minnesota is undefeated and being gifted points by a team that just lost to previously winless Temple—which, really, makes very little sense.

Two choices, here: 

  1. Run away because things that seem too good to be true most often are too good to be true.
  2. Take advantage of a Maryland team that is still somehow being propped up by its week one win over Texas, say thank you, and cash your ticket.

The Pick: Minnesota (+3)

South Carolina (-2.5) at Vanderbilt

Saturday, 3 PM CT | Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, TN

This one is, without a doubt, my favorite line of the week.

South Carolina got smacked by Georgia and then got to sit at home last week and watch everyone else play, courtesy of Hurricane Florence. Some spots on the calendar find a team hungrier than others. This is a very hungry, motivated spot for the Gamecocks.

Vanderbilt was this close to knocking off Notre Dame in South Bend, Ind., but fell short. And, say what you want about the Irish, beating them at their place—particularly for a program like Vandy—would be monumental.

Instead, it was just monumentally disappointing—and, now, the Commodores are left to try and shake that hangover in a week’s time with a far more talented South Carolina squad baring down on them.

Good luck.

The Pick: South Carolina (-2.5)

If you’re not feeling some of our picks this week, here’s a few bonus suggestions that we’ll undoubtedly attempt to take full credit for in the event that they’re winners: UL Monroe (+6.5), Navy (-6.5) and TCU (-3).