Draft Josh Allen first overall in the CFL. Draft him first overall in your flag football league. Bring the NFL Europe back and put him there. But, for the love of football, don’t pick him first overall in the NFL draft.

It’s very hard to find any reason why Allen should go in the top half of the upcoming draft other than his raw athletic talent—which is highly irrelevant when playing quarterback, by the way.

Now, you could say, “That’s just your opinion, Seth.” But it’s not just my opinion. It’s the opinion of many others. It’s also based on this actual quantifiable measure known, in some circles, as “statistics.”

The compilation of numbers and voices does not paint a kind picture of the former Wyoming signal-caller.

One of the primary narratives being pushed to defend Allen’s horrid 2017 season is the generalized indictment of his unsupportive supporting cast. But, while it’s true that Courtland Sutton was not walking through that door, the notion that Allen was throwing to a bunch of bums—relative to his peers—can be disproven by simply looking at his drop rate.

Target drop passes percentages:

Lamar Jackson - 8.5%
Baker Mayfield - 8.0%
Josh Rosen - 7.5%
Mason Rudolph - 6.6%
Josh Allen - 4.8%
Sam Darnold - 4.3%#SupportingCast

— J.R. (@JReidDraftScout) December 22, 2017

When you compare Allen to other quarterbacks drafted in the first round, his closest comparables are, um, not very good quarterbacks.

thought it was going to be hard finding QBs similar to josh allen that went in the first round. turns out, 2011 draft had 3 in the top 12. pic.twitter.com/weICREjwOB

— charles mcdonald (a guy at the airport) (@FourVerts) December 9, 2017

He also has the highest off-target rate of any top quarterback prospect over the past three years.

Worst final FBS season off-target rates among top QB prospects last 3 years:
Josh Allen 16.3%
DeShone Kizer 14.5%
Jeff Driskel 14.4%
Connor Cook 13.5%
C Hackenberg 13.4%

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) February 4, 2018

On a more analytical front, Bill Connelly looked at quarterback through success rate and found Allen at the bottom of his list of 2018 quarterback prospects:

Allen, however? If you’re likely to finish, at best, two to three percent below your college success rate, that means his ceiling is around 40.5 to 41 percent. That’s Ryan Mallett territory (40.8 percent). As a ceiling. Are we sure we’re willing to spend a top-five pick on a guy who might, with some good breaks, become Ryan Mallett?

Success rate is interesting because it tries to contextualize yards gained. A completion for 10 yards on third-and-9 is a successful play, while a 10-yard completion on third-and-15 is not a successful play.

Even when we dive into the gritty charting details of Josh Allen, the picture is still not pretty.

Ben Solak charted every throw from the top 13 quarterbacks coming out for his Contextualized Quarterbacking study. Ben tried to isolate the quarterback's decision making and accuracy away from his supporting cast.

He found that Allen ranked last in accuracy beyond the line of scrimmage, placement beyond the line of scrimmage, accuracy behind the line of scrimmage, placement behind the line of scrimmage, placement in 0-9 yards, accuracy beyond first read, placement beyond first read, placement from adjusted platform, placement under pressure, and adjusted completion percentage. He was in the bottom-third of every other category. 

Here’s what Ben had to say (highlights are mine):

Josh Allen’s sheet here only re-affirms what I already believed: you’re drafting a player solely on a potential, no matter where you take Allen. Allen makes some jaw-dropping throws, and certainly has some generational talent. But the risks he takes when asked to process/decide beyond his first read or under pressure are absurd, and he cannot be trusted on an NFL field with his sporadic ball placement.

On top of his poor decision making as a passer, Allen scrambled on nearly 1 out of every 10 dropbacks and took a sack on 1 out of every 13. He simply is not yet an NFL quarterback—just a dude with insane contact balance, nice speed, and a cannon attached to his right shoulder. Allen very well can become an NFL quarterback, but a team investing in Allen faces the two steepest challenges a young QB can face: improving decision-making (especially under pressure) and improving accuracy.

Pro Football Focus also contextualizes every throw and it didn’t find many positives, either.

Out of 56 draft-eligible quarterbacks:

• Allen ranks 48th in overall grade and 45th in passing grade.

Out of 48 draft-eligible quarterbacks:

• Allen ranks 30th in PFF QB rating.
• Allen ranks 45th in accuracy percentage.
• Allen ranks 30th in deep passing accuracy percentage—which kind of spoils the arm strength appeal, no?

Here an excerpt from the latest mock draft by PFF's Steve Palazzolo:

Allen’s boom or bust nature fits better in the second round and the Broncos are happy to take a shot at this point in the draft. He has a cannon for an arm and excellent athleticism, which somewhat makes up for his subpar accuracy, but he must improve his willingness to go through progressions and make plays within the structure of the offense. He finished with disappointing 74.1 overall grade last season after a solid 84.7 mark in 2016.

Football Outsiders has a projection stat called QBase which looks at a combination of stats to help project quarterbacks at the next level.

“It looks at college performance, experience, and expected draft position to incorporate scouting information that college stats will miss,” Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders explains. “To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback's efficiency (passing only) in Years 3 to 5 of his career according to Football Outsiders' Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) metric. 50,000 simulations produce a range of potential outcomes for each prospect, with players drafted later generally having a larger range of possibilities.”

Here’s Allen:

Jeremy Rosen and Alexandre Olbrecht took QBase to the next level and built a model that consistently beats NFL scouts on drafting quarterbacks. They project Allen higher than most but still significantly behind Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, and Sam Darnold.

It’s hard to find any reason why Josh Allen should be drafted as highly as he most likely will be later this month in the NFL draft. At some point during his college career, the numbers should have backed up what people see in him and they never did.