Reading The Tea Leaves: Forecasting National Signing Day Via Twitter

Reading The Tea Leaves: Forecasting National Signing Day Via Twitter

Like a bunch of rabid message board posters, let’s attempt to decode recent tweets to determine where the top unsigned, uncommitted prospects will land.

Feb 6, 2018 by Kolby Paxton
Reading The Tea Leaves: Forecasting National Signing Day Via Twitter

National Signing Day Lite — formerly known as National Signing Day — is upon us.

Unlike those who signed back in December, while school was out for the holidays, the prospects rounding out the 2018 signing classes will have the lights and cameras fully fixed on them.

The spotlight is hot on guys like Patrick Surtain Jr., Tyson Campbell, and Nicholas Petit-Frere, who would’ve already had a significant helping of attention but now stand at the forefront of the class after 70 percent of their peers inked well over a month ago.

The thinned-out crowd allows for some increased speculation as to where it will sign on Wednesday, but the sources who have sources with sources are exhausting. So, here’s an (even more ridiculous) alternative: tweet-based predictions.

That’s right. Like a bunch of rabid message board posters on steroids, let’s attempt to decode recent Tweets to determine where the top five unsigned, uncommitted prospects will land:

1. Nicholas Petit-Frere, OT, Berkeley Prep (FL)

Petit-Frere is not exactly an open book. And, by “not exactly,” we mean the last time he tweeted about a school, it was Stanford — last July.


The top-ranked tackle in the country also does not make a habit out of interacting with other prospects regarding their choices, but there was this a week ago:


For most, this would mean nothing. But for Petit-Frere, it’s something if only because, well, it’s literally anything at all. Of course, two days after this retweet, he was in Columbus, Ohio, for an official visit to Ohio State.

Prediction: Petit-Frere wakes up on Wednesday morning to sunshine and 70 degrees, realizes that it’s 60 degrees colder and snowing in Ann Arbor, MI, and Columbus, shivers at the thought, and tosses a Florida cap in his backpack.


2. Patrick Surtain Jr., CB, American Heritage (FL)

Back in August, Surtain — the highest-rated cornerback prospect of all time — presented his top six: LSU, Alabama, Ohio State, Florida, Clemson, and Florida State.


Not mentioned: Miami.

But then the Hurricanes won 10 games, went to the Orange Bowl, revived the swagger of “The U,” and, three days ago…


That’s not just Surtain. It’s also No. 2 cornerback Tyson Campbell and No. 2 defensive tackle (and apparently ace recruiter) Nesta Silvera, who has been committed to Miami for a calendar year.

Surtain’s position coach at Miami would be former American Heritage head coach Mike Rumph, who, like the elder Surtain, is also an NFL alum.

Prediction: Surtain flips a coin moments before announcing that, despite throwing up the “U” just a few days ago, he will be taking his talents to Baton Rouge. Tails never fails.


3. Tyson Campbell, CB, American Heritage (FL)

Campbell is the proverbial cherry on top of a spectacular signing class at Georgia — that is, unless Miami steals him away.

But, here’s the thing: While the above video is reason for LSU to worry, it’s no sweat for UGA. Why? Because Surtain retweeted it. Campbell did not.

In fact, Campbell’s only tweet about visiting Miami was this:


Compare that to this:


Prediction: Campbell to Georgia. Never in doubt.


4. JaMarr Chase, WR, Archbishop Rummel (LA)

Chase is the 15th-ranked wide receiver in the country and is being recruited to pair with Parkway’s (LA) Terrace Marshall at LSU — the odds for which have long been considered very good.

But, then, Auburn came from the clouds to get Chase on campus for an official visit last week and, if nothing else, he enjoyed the photo shoot: 


You may notice, however, that head coach Gus Malzahn does not appear in the shoot. Meanwhile, LSU head coach Ed Orgeron — and the entire offensive staff — spent Super Bowl Sunday at the Chase home — and they must’ve brought some great dips, because JaMarr’s father wasn’t shy about it:


Prediction: It’s hard enough for a school to come into New Orleans and steal a prospect from LSU. It’s harder when Coach O and the entire offensive staff crashes the family Super Bowl party three days before National Signing Day. Chase is geauxing to LSU.


5. Olaijah Griffin, CB, Mission Viejo (CA)

This has nothing to do with recruiting, but, first of all, how’s this the only documented instance of a player turning his cleats into Gucci slides?


Bonus points for creativity. But, anyway. 

Griffin was at ‘Bama a couple of weeks ago:


He also visited Auburn alongside Chase, but, unlike Chase, made no kind of social media announcement. No pin drop. No photoshoot. Nada. What does that mean? Well, it means Auburn is clearly out, Alabama is clearly a threat, or both.

The favorite is Southern Cal. He visited the Trojans in mid-January. And, while it’s nice for ‘Bama that he posted a picture of his visit, Griffin blew up Twitter while on his official to USC — and even his dad, Warren G, got involved. Yes, that Warren G.


Prediction: Griffin shocks the world and signs with Auburn. “I just didn’t want to let the Tiger out of the bag,” he’ll say.

Just kidding. He’s going to USC.