Waco (Texas) Midway quarterback Tanner Mordecai is very good at football.

He’s also very committed to Oklahoma and has less than zero interest in belaboring that fact.

For the first time since John Madden invented the sport of football, senior prospects like Mordecai will have the opportunity to sign earlier than the traditional February National Signing Day. From Dec. 20-22, the pathway to a tangible commitment will open, allowing players and schools the opportunity to lock scholarships into place well over a month earlier than the previous norm.

No one is really sure what’s going to happen, but the closer we get to this fascinating 72-hour period the clearer it becomes that this won’t just be a bunch of early enrollees confirming the obvious.

Mordecai, a dual-threat quarterback with four stars next to his name, isn’t enrolling early at Oklahoma — but he isn’t waiting around until February to scribble on a letter of intent, either.

“I’m going to sign early because I’m 100 percent to Oklahoma,” he explains in a matter-of-fact — borderline accusatory — tone, almost as if I’d been sent from Baylor to try and flip him. “I’m going to Oklahoma regardless, so I have no reason to wait.”

Fair enough. And, when you think about it, keeping options alive — appealing as it may be for some — could also be seen as a risk not worth taking for others. Like, a lot of others, actually.

Mordecai is the 43rd-ranked quarterback in the 2018 class. I was kind of surprised he was so emphatic about signing ASAP. I was kind of an idiot.

To be clear — like, super, very crystal clear — I’m only using the following players and schools to illustrate a larger point. I know nothing. I’ve heard nothing. This is purely hypothetical — as in, this should not be taken literally. I have no insider information. I’m sure each of these players and their respective schools will live happily ever after.

OK, we squared away with all of that?

Herman said juggling early signing period has been a challenge but expects to sign 3/4 of class early. pic.twitter.com/yHt5vq982h

— Roger Wallace (@rwallacekxan) December 15, 2017

Let’s say that Texas, which currently has commitments from quarterbacks No. 26 and No. 27, somehow lands QB No. 3, Tanner McKee. And let’s say that McKee’s signing causes No. 26 and No. 27 — Casey Thompson and Cameron Rising, respectively — to back away from the Longhorns. What if QB No. 43 didn’t sign early?

Thompson is from Newcastle, OK, and received a scholarship offer from the Sooners way back in May 2016. Rising was committed to Oklahoma until about eight months ago.

By now, you see where this is going. By not signing early, Mordecai isn’t just keeping his own options open — he’s providing some encouragement for Oklahoma to continue fishing at the position. 

“If you’re verbally committed, and you don’t sign [during next week's Early Signing Period], you’re not committed,” a Power 5 coach said. pic.twitter.com/FsKfzuZcPa

— SpursUp (@palmettospur) December 14, 2017

So, the natural takeaway from all of this is, “Oh, well I guess all of the blue-blood programs are going to have a significant number of players signed by Dec. 22, considering it’s tough to do "better" than Oklahoma… or Alabama, Ohio State, Southern Cal, et al.” But watch this:

Texas lands McKee. Thompson flips to Oklahoma. Mordecai — who in our very hypothetical make-believe scenario doesn’t sign on Dec. 20 — ends up at Texas Tech. Now, Grapevine’s Alan Bowman heads for Houston instead of Lubbock. And, as a result, Tyler, Texas, native Chance Amie opts for North Texas, instead.

The trickle-down effect for one player holding out past the early signing period is potentially immense. The risk doesn’t rest with the schools as I’d previously assumed. It rests with the prospects, who could watch as a series of post-Dec. 22 dominos leave them looking for a Plan B. For that reason, Mordecai won’t be an outlier next week when he autographs an NLI.

That’s bad news for the Group of Five.

In fact, if you’re a fan of a G5 program and you’re hoping this new signing day doesn’t widen the gap between your squad and those from the Power Five, I’m afraid all signs are pointing towards a really bad winter for you, my friend.

With the nation’s top programs loading their classes before Christmas, they will be freed up, not just to vulture lower-rated prospects to fill holes but also to get a head start on 2019-20 prospect shopping. 

While programs like UCF, Western Michigan, and San Diego State are furiously working to protect their commitments and close well on Feb. 7, Florida, Michigan, and Southern Cal will have the hay in the barn — which means a 47-day jump on the next class.

Of course, G5 programs could and undoubtedly will try to fill as much of their classes as possible — but they will face challenges that P5 programs don’t. A prospect who is committed to LSU doesn’t have much reason to continue holding out. But a prospect who’s committed to Louisiana-Monroe is far more likely to hold out in hopes that LSU will make a late offer — and, believe me, the “wait and see” card is no secret to the schools that are in a position to play it.

So, in a nutshell, the early signing period is likely very good for the already very good, very bad for the lesser so, and very stressful for all parties involved.