Cover 4: A Blaze Of Glory

Cover 4: A Blaze Of Glory

The top picks against the spread for college football's championship week.

Nov 30, 2017 by Kolby Paxton
Cover 4: A Blaze Of Glory

It’s hard to believe there’s really just one Saturday left that resembles anything close to a full slate of college football this season.

Seems like just yesterday we were making our first picks of the season — and we should have known the 2017 edition of the Cover 4 was doomed for mediocrity when pick No. 1 was Rice beating the spread against Stanford in Australia.

The probability of going up in flames during a week in which all of the action is conference championship games is high. But maybe, instead, we’ll go out in a blaze of glory.

CENTRAL FLORIDA (-7) over Memphis

Saturday, Dec. 2 | Noon ET | Orlando, FL (Spectrum Stadium)

This one was the easiest of the week (which may mean it’s doomed to fail, but I digress…).

Two months ago, UCF beat Memphis 40-13 in a game it led 23-7 at the break and 40-7 prior to the final play of the game. The Knights rolled up 603 yards of total offense, including 350 yards on the ground.


And, yeah, Tigers quarterback Riley Ferguson got his, but he was also intercepted three times and padded his stats with an 83-yard drive at the end of the game. UCF dominated Ferguson and the Memphis offense in a way that no one else has this season.

So, seven points? Sure. I’ll lay seven points.

Oklahoma (-7.5) over TCU

Saturday | 11:30 AM CT | Arlington, Texas (AT&T Stadium)

And if I’m going to use the above logic for UCF covering against Memphis, it stands to reason I’d apply the same process of thought to OU.

The Sooners dominated TCU in Norman, OK, just three weeks ago, leading 38-14 after three quarters and coasting to a 38-20 win, and there’s really no reason to believe that Baker Mayfield and company won’t have their way with the Horned Frogs again.


That being said, this one does feel different. Like, who would really be shocked if OU ended up paying the price for the creation of a Big 12 Championship game that needn’t be played by a league with 10 teams and no divisions?

Georgia (+3) over Auburn

Saturday | 4 PM ET | Atlanta (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)

Georgia is basically at home. It’s playing not just for revenge — and not just for a conference championship — but also to vault itself back into a College Football Playoff that seemed long gone while Kerryon Johnson was rumbling toward the end zone and a 40-10 fourth-quarter lead for the Tigers.

This time around, there's no guarantee that Johnson will even be healthy enough to impact the game.


I like Auburn. I like Auburn a lot. But I like the intangibles and the symmetry that Georgia is working with just a little bit more.

Clemson (-10) over Miami

Saturday | 8 PM ET | Charlotte, NC (Bank of America Stadium)

In arguably the most depressing college football-related development of the week, Miami wide receiver Ahmonn Richards was carted off the field with an injury during practice on Wednesday, leaving the Hurricanes without 916 receiving yards and nine touchdowns between Richards and tight end Christopher Herndon, who was lost for the season during last week’s loss at Pitt.


I love what Mark Richt has done at Miami, and I’d love to see the ‘Canes come out and go toe-to-toe with Clemson. But they’re not exactly trending upward as they head to Charlotte.

It’s going to take a huge effort from the Miami defense to keep this thing close — and if I have to pick one or the other, I’m going to pick a deeper Clemson depth chart to pull away late.