Attention, FCS passengers: The flight to Selection Sunday is now boarding. Twenty-four tickets are available, turbulence is expected, and Montana may want to check its boarding pass. Northern Arizona just knocked off the Grizzlies, Tarleton State remains undefeated, and the playoff departure board is changing fast.
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Welcome to Bubble International Airport, where South Dakota State is relaxing in first class, Austin Peay just received an upgrade and Monmouth has been bumped to standby. We're projecting what the field could look like on Selection Sunday, not simply rewarding today's standings. Some teams have earned priority boarding. Others still have a long way to go before November.
FCS Playoff Predictions After Week 6
The 2026 FCS playoff field consists of 24 teams: 11 automatic qualifiers and 13 at-large selections. Sixteen teams receive seeds, with the top eight earning first-round byes.
The rankings below come from the Oct. 12 AFCA FCS Coaches Poll. The projected seeds are mine.
First Class: Projected FCS Playoff Seeds 1–8
These eight teams receive first-round byes in our projected bracket. The number before each team name is its AFCA ranking, while its position in the list represents its projected playoff seed.
AFCA Rank | Team | Conference | Bid Type
- No. 1 South Dakota State (5-1) — MVFC — Automatic qualifier
- No. 2 Tarleton State (6-0) — UAC — Automatic qualifier
- No. 3 Stephen F. Austin (6-0) — Southland — Automatic qualifier
- No. 5 Montana State (5-1) — Big Sky — Automatic qualifier
- No. 4 Lehigh (6-0) — Patriot League — Automatic qualifier
- No. 6 Youngstown State (5-2) — MVFC — At-large
- No. 7 Montana (5-2) — Big Sky — At-large
- No. 11 Austin Peay (5-2) — UAC — At-large
Economy Class: Projected FCS Playoff Seeds 9–16
These eight teams receive seeds but must play in the first round.
AFCA Rank | Team | Conference | Bid Type
- No. 8 Lamar (5-1) — Southland — At-large
- No. 10 Northern Arizona (5-2) — Big Sky — At-large
- No. 9 South Dakota (5-2) — MVFC — At-large
- No. 12 UC Davis (4-2) — Big Sky — At-large
- No. 13 Illinois State (4-2) — MVFC — At-large
- No. 15 North Dakota (5-2) — MVFC — At-large
- No. 16 Mercer (5-2) — SoCon — Automatic qualifier
- No. 18 Campbell (5-1) — CAA — Automatic qualifier
General Boarding: Projected Unseeded Playoff Teams
These eight teams round out the projected 24-team field and would play in the first round.
AFCA Rank | Team | Conference | Bid Type
- No. 14 Tennessee Tech (5-1) — SoCon — At-large
- No. 19 Colgate (4-2) — Patriot League — At-large
- No. 22 Richmond (5-2) — Patriot League — At-large
- No. 24 East Tennessee State (5-2) — SoCon — At-large
- No. 17 Harvard (4-0) — Ivy League — Automatic qualifier
- Robert Morris (3-3) — NEC — Automatic qualifier
- Butler (5-1) — Pioneer Football League — Automatic qualifier
- Southeast Missouri State (3-3) — OVC — Automatic qualifier
The Last Four In: Holding Onto Their Boarding Passes
Colgate: The Raiders climb into our projected field after narrowly losing to FBS Central Michigan and undefeated Harvard. Their remaining Patriot League schedule gives them opportunities to strengthen their résumé.
Richmond: The Spiders remain in the field despite a concerning 20-14 loss to Fordham. At 5-2, they're still in position to earn an invitation, but upcoming games against Colgate and Lehigh could decide their fate.
Tennessee Tech: The Golden Eagles are ranked No. 14 nationally, but their 44-20 loss to Western Carolina complicated the SoCon race. A 38-14 win over Monmouth strengthens their at-large argument.
East Tennessee State: The Buccaneers have beaten Chattanooga and Western Carolina, but we're forecasting Mercer to claim the SoCon's automatic bid. ETSU will need its résumé to hold up.
The First Four Out: Standby Only
Monmouth: The Hawks lead the CAA at 3-0, but their remaining schedule is challenging. A 38-14 loss to Tennessee Tech and a narrow 41-40 victory over Towson leave questions about their postseason ceiling.
Idaho State: An early victory over FBS Utah State looked like a valuable ticket to the playoffs. Consecutive Big Sky losses to Northern Arizona and Cal Poly have pushed the Bengals outside our field.
Northern Iowa: The Panthers have beaten North Dakota and entered the AFCA Top 25, but we're forecasting five other MVFC teams ahead of them. Their path remains open in a brutally competitive conference.
Stony Brook: The Seawolves are 4-2 and unbeaten in CAA play, but we're not ready to award them an at-large spot ahead of teams with stronger projected November résumés.
Turbulence Over Big Sky Country
Montana might want to fasten its seat belt.
One week after Idaho stunned Montana State 35-34, Northern Arizona delivered another shock, beating Montana 49-44 and climbing to No. 10 in the AFCA poll.
The Lumberjacks now own a head-to-head victory over the Grizzlies. But Montana State already beat Northern Arizona 28-14 earlier this season, making the Big Sky championship picture considerably more complicated.
We're predicting the Bobcats rebound from their Idaho loss, beat Montana in the Nov. 21 Brawl of the Wild and claim the conference's automatic playoff bid.
That would leave Montana and Northern Arizona fighting for at-large invitations and favorable seeds.
There is no Big Sky championship game, so the regular-season standings will determine the automatic qualifier. With three nationally ranked contenders and several games remaining, this race could stay unsettled all the way to November.
Austin Peay Gets An Upgrade To First Class
You usually don't receive a seat upgrade after losing.
Apparently, Austin Peay didn't get that memo.
The Governors fell 40-32 to undefeated Tarleton State, dropping to 5-2 and No. 11 in the AFCA poll. Yet we're keeping Austin Peay in our projected top eight.
Why?
We're forecasting a strong finish rather than simply reacting to one defeat against the nation's second-ranked team.
Quarterback Chris Parson threw for 231 yards and rushed for another 102 against Tarleton, demonstrating why the Governors remain dangerous. Parson also continues to be on the Walter Payton Award watch list.
Austin Peay's remaining schedule gives it opportunities to rebuild its case, and we're betting on the Governors to capitalize.
South Dakota, Lamar and Northern Arizona all have legitimate arguments for that final bye. For now, though, we're handing Austin Peay the last first-class boarding pass.
It's a bold call. We'll see whether November rewards it.
Three Patriot League Teams Are Cleared For Takeoff
The Patriot League is making a serious push for three playoff invitations in our projections.
Lehigh remains undefeated and holds our projected automatic bid. Colgate and Richmond join the field as at-large selections.
Colgate's two losses came by three points apiece against FBS Central Michigan and unbeaten Harvard. That's a résumé worth reconsidering, particularly with the Raiders now ranked No. 19.
Richmond has a more complicated case.
The Spiders are 5-2, but their 20-14 loss to Fordham raises legitimate questions. We're betting on Richmond's ability to recover and strengthen its résumé down the stretch.
Colgate visits Richmond on Oct. 24 before facing Lehigh on Nov. 7.
Those games could determine whether the Patriot League sends three teams to the postseason or whether one of our projected passengers misses the flight.
Mercer Takes The SoCon Boarding Pass, But ETSU Isn't Leaving
We've liked Mercer for weeks, and we're sticking with the Bears.
Mercer is 5-2 and ranked No. 16 nationally, with a notable 34-17 victory over Abilene Christian.
But the SoCon isn't making this easy.
East Tennessee State Football is also 5-2 and has beaten Western Carolina and Chattanooga. Tennessee Tech is 5-1, ranked No. 14 and recovered from its Western Carolina loss by beating Furman.
All three teams are in our projected field, but only Mercer receives the automatic bid.
The remaining schedule should help settle the argument.
Tennessee Tech visits ETSU on Oct. 31, Mercer travels to Tennessee Tech on Nov. 14, and ETSU visits Mercer on Nov. 21.
That's three important games with major postseason implications.
We're predicting Mercer wins the conference, while ETSU and Tennessee Tech secure at-large invitations.
But nobody in this terminal should get too comfortable.
Campbell Has The Ticket, Monmouth Is Stuck On Standby
The Camels are still our pick to win the CAA.
Campbell is 5-1, ranked No. 18 and unbeaten in conference play. Its résumé includes a 49-37 road victory over ETSU, and the Camels' only loss came against FBS Florida.
Monmouth currently leads the CAA at 3-0, but we're leaving the Hawks outside our projected playoff field.
That's not because Monmouth has played poorly enough to be dismissed. It's because we're forecasting what happens over the rest of the regular season.
The Hawks lost 38-14 to Tennessee Tech and needed a late escape to beat winless Towson 41-40. Their remaining conference schedule presents additional challenges.
And waiting on Nov. 21 is Campbell.
That matchup could determine the CAA automatic qualifier.
Stony Brook and Bryant are also unbeaten in conference play, so this race is far from settled.
For now, we're still rocking with the Camels.
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