
All rise. The honorable Judge Bubble has entered the courtroom, and 24 FCS playoff spots are on his docket.
Last week, Judge Bubble handed out playoff invitations, made a few controversial rulings and left some unhappy teams outside the courtroom.
Now Week 5 has brought new evidence, and a few of those decisions are being appealed.
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Elon lost again after we left the Phoenix out. Mercer responded to its last-at-large selection with 54 points. Campbell keeps making our CAA prediction look better, Harvard hit a Hail Mary, and Idaho has officially filed an objection to Montana State's No. 1 seed.
The evidence has been submitted. Let's hear the verdict.
FCS Playoff Predictions After Week 5
A quick refresher: The 24-team FCS playoff field consists of 11 automatic qualifiers and 13 at-large selections. Sixteen teams are seeded, with the top eight receiving first-round byes.
The rankings below are from the latest AFCA FCS Coaches Poll. The seeds are mine.
Projected FCS Playoff Seeds
Proj. Seed | Rank | Team | Conference | Bid Type
No. 1 South Dakota State — MVFC — AQ
No. 3 Montana — Big Sky — AQ
No. 2 Tarleton — UAC — AQ
No. 4 Stephen F. Austin — Southland — AQ
No. 6 Montana State — Big Sky — At-large
No. 5 Lehigh — Patriot League — AQ
No. 7 North Dakota — MVFC — At-large
No. 8 Austin Peay — UAC — At-large
No. 9 Youngstown State — MVFC — At-large
No. 10 Lamar — Southland — At-large
No. 11 UC Davis — Big Sky — At-large
No. 12 South Dakota — MVFC — At-large
No. 14 Northern Arizona — Big Sky — At-large
No. 13 Illinois State — MVFC — At-large
No. 15 Richmond — Patriot League — At-large
No. 20 Campbell — CAA — AQ
Projected Unseeded FCS Playoff Teams
Rank | Team | Conference | Bid Type
No. 17 Idaho State — Big Sky — At-large
No. 18 Mercer — SoCon — At-large
No. 24 Monmouth — CAA — At-large
NR East Tennessee State — SoCon — AQ
No. 19 Harvard — Ivy League — AQ
NR Robert Morris Football — NEC — AQ
NR Drake Football — Pioneer Football League — AQ
NR Gardner-Webb — OVC — AQ
First Four Out
Colgate: A 20-17 loss to Harvard on a last-second miracle sends the Raiders outside our field.
Elon: We left the Phoenix out last week. Another loss hasn't exactly strengthened their appeal.
Southern Illinois: We questioned the Salukis' schedule last week. A 28-16 loss to Youngstown State didn't help their case. The Salukis have two more ranked teams ahead of them.
Chattanooga: A 14-3 loss to ETSU complicates the Mocs' path through an increasingly competitive SoCon.
Idaho Files An Objection To Montana State's No. 1 Seed

Last week, Judge Bubble awarded Montana State the No. 1 seed and Big Sky automatic bid.
Idaho's legal team had some objections.
The previously winless Vandals stunned the Bobcats 35-34, ending their 19-game winning streak and sending them tumbling to No. 6 in the AFCA poll.
The revised ruling? South Dakota State takes our top seed, Montana moves to No. 2 and Montana State falls to No. 5.
But don't crown the Grizzlies just yet.
The Bobcats and Grizzlies still have the Brawl of the Wild waiting at the end of the regular season. That rivalry could decide the Big Sky race and reshape the top of our bracket once again.
The court will reconvene then.
Exhibit A: We Left Elon Out. Then Elon Lost Again.

Last week, Elon was our First Four Out.
Word around the courtroom is Judge Bubble's decision wasn't particularly popular with the jury.
Then New Hampshire happened.
Elon lost 30-23 to a Wildcats team that entered the game 1-4, dropping the Phoenix to 4-2.
The defense would like to submit that result into evidence.
Southern Illinois also failed to strengthen its appeal, losing 28-16 to Youngstown State after we questioned the Salukis' difficult upcoming schedule.
Two controversial exclusions. Two losses.
Judge Bubble stands by the original ruling.
Exhibit B: Mercer Presents 54 Points Of Evidence

Last week, Mercer was hanging onto the final at-large spot in our playoff projections by the skin of its teeth.
The Bears apparently took that personally.
Mercer demolished VMI 54-3, piling up nearly 650 yards of offense and 391 on the ground to improve to 4-2.
Your Honor, the defense rests.
Of course, VMI is still winless, so Judge Bubble isn't ready to call this a signature victory. But the Bears did exactly what a playoff contender should do against an overmatched opponent.
Now comes the real cross-examination.
Western Carolina visits Saturday fresh off a 44-20 upset of Tennessee Tech. Another Mercer victory would carry considerably more weight in the courtroom.
Speaking Of The SoCon... The Case Is Getting Complicated

Last week, Tennessee Tech was our projected SoCon champion and No. 8 seed.
Then Western Carolina handed the Golden Eagles a 44-20 reality check.
Meanwhile, East Tennessee State beat Chattanooga 14-3, strengthening its case in a crowded conference race.
We're switching our projected automatic bid to the Buccaneers.
Mercer also remains firmly in the conversation.
Several contenders. One automatic bid.
Judge Bubble is going to need more evidence.
Judge Bubble Is Still Rocking With The Camels

Remember when we picked Campbell to win the CAA despite being unranked?
The Camels are now No. 20.
Campbell improved to 5-1 with a 38-31 victory over North Carolina Central, and we're sticking with our conference championship prediction.
But there's a new witness in the courtroom.
Monmouth entered the AFCA poll at No. 24 after beating Towson 41-40, improving to 4-2 overall and 3-0 in CAA play.
The Hawks replace Colgate as our final at-large selection.
And let's not forget Youngstown State. We defended the Penguins' early losses last week, and they rewarded that confidence by beating Southern Illinois 28-16.
Judge Bubble's previous rulings are holding up pretty well.
Harvard Is Undefeated, But The Jury Is Still Out

Harvard is 3-0, ranked No. 19 and currently holds our projected Ivy League automatic bid.
Case closed?
Not quite.
The Crimson needed a Hail Mary hook-and-ladder touchdown as time expired to beat Colgate 20-17.
One play separates Harvard's undefeated record from a very different conversation about its playoff résumé.
Harvard remains our pick, but Judge Bubble isn't ready to deliver a final verdict on the Ivy League just yet.
Court adjourned. Until Week 6.
Six FCS Playoff Bubble Games To Watch In Week 6
No. 2 Tarleton State at No. 8 Austin Peay: Two projected seeds collide in a major UAC showdown.
No. 3 Montana at No. 14 Northern Arizona: Our new Big Sky champion faces a team fresh off a ranked victory.
Western Carolina at No. 18 Mercer: The Catamounts just dismantled Tennessee Tech. Can Mercer handle the same challenge?
Wofford at Elon: The Phoenix need wins, and Judge Bubble isn't known for granting extensions.
- Stony Brook at Towson: The Seawolves remain outside our field but have another opportunity to build their case.
The Citadel at ETSU: Our new projected SoCon champion gets another test against a team that just upset South Carolina State.
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