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2026 Harvard vs New Hampshire

The Bubble Giveth, The Bubble Taketh: FCS Playoff Predictions After Week 2

The Bubble Giveth, The Bubble Taketh: FCS Playoff Predictions After Week 2

Who’s in and who’s out of the FCS playoffs? See the projected 24-team field, top 16 seeds, Last Four In and First Four Out after Week 2.

Sep 14, 2026 by Ajay Shah
The Bubble Giveth, The Bubble Taketh: FCS Playoff Predictions After Week 2

Three weeks into the 2026 college football season, the FCS playoff bubble is already getting crowded.

Illinois State added another FBS upset to the FCS’s growing collection, Lehigh made that No. 8 seed I gave the Mountain Hawks last week look pretty good, and The Citadel went from one of my favorite additions to completely out of the field. My bad on that one.

Meanwhile, Cal Poly and Colgate are making noise without even cracking the Top 25, and Furman suddenly has a pretty convincing argument to slip in.

It was an electric thunderstorm of a weekend for FCS college football, and now here we are. The dust has settled, the rankings are out, and the playoff picture is ready for another shake-up.

Folks, welcome back to the bubble. And don’t worry, I’ve heard your questions.

You want to know: If the FCS Playoff Selection Committee had to build the 24-team field today, who would make the cut?

Well, wonder no more. Here’s my FCS playoff projection after Week 2.

UPCOMING

2026 Princeton vs Bryant

Sat, Sep 19 · 5:00 PM UTC

WATCH

FCS Playoff Predictions After Week 2

How To Read These FCS Playoff Predictions

An automatic qualifier is a team I project to win its conference's automatic playoff bid. An at-large team is one I project to make the field without winning an automatic bid.

The 24-team playoff field is seeded 1-16, with the top eight seeds receiving first-round byes. The seeding is my prediction, while the rankings are from the latest AFCA FCS Coaches Poll.

The 2026 field includes 11 automatic qualifiers and 13 at-large selections.

The Projected FCS Playoff Seeds

Proj. Seed | Rank | Team | Conference | Bid Type

  1. No. 1 Montana State | Big Sky | Automatic Qualifier

  2. No. 2 Montana | Big Sky | At-Large

  3. No. 4 Illinois State Football | MVFC | At-Large

  4. No. 5 Tarleton | UAC | Automatic Qualifier

  5. No. 3 South Dakota State | MVFC | Automatic Qualifier

  6. No. 6 North Dakota | MVFC | At-Large

  7. No. 7 Lehigh | Patriot League | Automatic Qualifier

  8. No. 8 Stephen F. Austin | Southland | Automatic Qualifier

  9. No. 12 South Dakota | MVFC | At-Large

  10. No. 10 Tennessee Tech | SoCon | Automatic Qualifier

  11. No. 9 Youngstown State  | MVFC | At-Large

  12. No. 13 Rhode Island | CAA | Automatic Qualifier

  13. No. 18 Idaho State | Big Sky | At-Large

  14. No. 11 UC Davis | Big Sky | At-Large

  15. No. 15 Lamar | Southland | At-Large

  16. No. 14 Austin Peay | UAC | At-Large

My Projected Unseeded FCS Playoff Teams

Proj. Seed | Rank | Team | Conference | Bid Type

FCS Playoff Bubble: The Last Four In And First Four Out

The pressure is already building around the cut line.

Mercer and William & Mary suddenly find themselves much closer to the cut line, Wofford has played its way into the field, and Cal Poly, Colgate, and Furman are banging on the door.

There are only 24 spots to go around. Here’s who is hanging on and who is waiting for their chance.

My Last Four In

  • Dayton

  • Wofford

  • No. 22 Mercer

  • No. 21 William & Mary

My First Four Out

  1. Cal Poly

  2. Colgate

  3. No. 24 Furman

  4. No. 25 Southern Illinois

Ask Me About That Lehigh Seed Again

Last week, I gave Lehigh the No. 8 seed and the final first-round bye.

I ended that section with a challenge: Ask me about that No. 8 seed again next week.

Well, here we are. Last weekend, No. 8 Lehigh and No. 16 William & Mary entered Week 2 set for a ranked Patriot League showdown.

Turns out Lehigh didn't just beat William & Mary. They clobbered them. The Mountain Hawks jumped out to a 30-0 lead in the second quarter and eventually won 44-20. Lehigh rushed for 366 yards and improved to 3-0.

The Mountain Hawks are now No. 7 in the AFCA Coaches Poll, and I'm moving them up another spot to match.

Illinois State Jumps Tarleton After Another FCS Over FBS Upset

The FCS keeps collecting FBS wins, and this time Illinois State gets rewarded.

The Redbirds beat Northern Illinois 28-24 to improve to 3-0. Illinois State built a 21-0 lead, watched NIU storm back and then answered when it mattered.

I'm moving Illinois State from my No. 4 seed to No. 3, jumping Tarleton State.

That's less about punishing Tarleton and more about rewarding Illinois State. The Texans remain 3-0 and already own an FBS win over Bowling Green, but they needed a field goal as time expired to escape McNeese 27-24.

The Citadel Is Out. Wofford Is In

Last week, The Citadel Football went from outside my field to one of my Last Four In after beating FBS Charlotte 43-41 in triple overtime.

The Citadel lost 26-20 in double overtime to Charleston Southern and fell to 1-2. That becomes even more difficult to overlook when one of those losses was a 42-14 defeat against Wofford.

So I'm making the switch. One week since the the bubble giveth, the bubble must taketh away.

The Citadel is out. Wofford is in.

Wofford is 2-1, and its only loss came against FBS Kent State. The Terriers also have the best argument possible against The Citadel: They already played, and Wofford won by 28.

Lamar Crashes The Top 16 Party

Lamar was unseeded in my field last week.

Not anymore.

The Cardinals went on the road and beat Idaho 23-17 to improve to 2-1, with their only loss coming against FBS Louisiana.

The AFCA voters noticed, too. Lamar jumped from No. 17 to No. 15.

I'm giving the Cardinals my No. 15 seed and moving Yale into the unseeded field. Yale remains my projected Ivy League automatic qualifier, but they haven't played yet.

Lamar has played, and has earned two wins. Winning isn’t easy.

Cal Poly And Colgate Are Knocking On The Door

Neither team is ranked. Both have my attention.

Cal Poly  is 2-1, with its only loss coming 30-20 at FBS San Jose State. The Mustangs received 51 votes in the latest AFCA poll and are my first team out.

Then there's Colgate.

The Raiders are also 2-1, and their only loss was a 13-10 game at FBS Central Michigan. Colgate received 30 votes in the latest poll.

Neither team gets into my field this week. But if you're looking for two unranked teams that could make next week's Bubble Watch much more complicated, start there.

Mercer Is Suddenly Sweating

Mercer was No. 14 in the AFCA poll last week.

Now the Bears are No. 22 and sitting in my Last Four In.

Furman beat Mercer 20-13, snapping the Bears' 12-game SoCon winning streak and handing Mercer its first conference loss of the season.

That creates an awkward situation on the bubble.

I'm keeping Mercer in for now, but Furman is 2-1, owns the head-to-head win and just entered the AFCA poll at No. 24.

The Paladins are my third team out.

Mercer can't afford many more Saturdays like that.

FCS Playoff Bubble Games To Watch In Week 3

The bubble never sleeps. Here are five Week 3 games that could shake up next week's projection:

  • Dartmouth vs. No. 7 Lehigh: Lehigh can strengthen its case for a first-round bye, while Dartmouth finally opens Ivy League play.

  • Fordham vs. No. 21 William & Mary: The Tribe needs a response after falling into my Last Four In.

  • Cornell vs. Colgate: My second team out can make a strong case for entry with another win.

  • No. 24 Furman vs. No. 16 South Carolina State: Beat another ranked opponent, and Furman could be difficult to keep out.

  • Villanova vs. LIU: At 1-2, Villanova needs to start stacking wins before the teams outside the bubble pass it.

UPCOMING

2026 Harvard vs New Hampshire

Sat, Sep 19 · 5:00 PM UTC

WATCH

Which Conferences Have The Most Projected FCS Playoff Teams?

The MVFC once again leads the way in my projected field.

  • MVFC: 5
  • Big Sky: 4
  • Patriot League: 3
  • SoCon: 3
  • UAC: 2
  • Southland: 2
  • CAA: 1
  • Ivy League: 1
  • NEC: 1
  • Big South-OVC: 1
  • Pioneer Football League: 1

The MVFC could make this even more complicated soon. No. 25 Southern Illinois is already sitting in my First Four Out.

The Big Sky isn't much easier. Four teams are currently in my field, while Cal Poly is my first team out.

The Patriot League has three teams in the projection, led by undefeated Lehigh, while William & Mary and Villanova hold at-large spots.

And now the Ivy League finally gets to play football.

Three weeks down. Will this bubble pop?

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