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2024 FCS Playoffs 1st Round Previews & Predictions

2024 FCS Playoffs 1st Round Previews & Predictions

The FCS Playoffs begin Nov. 30 with eight marquee matchups, including CAA champion Richmond hosting Lehigh and Rhode Island making its postseason return.

Nov 29, 2024 by Kyle Kensing
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Playoff season is here. A season that kicked off with more than 100 teams aspiring to play in Frisco, Texas, for the NCAA FCS National Championship has been whittled down to 24. 

The field is made up of usual suspects at the top. North Dakota State is chasing after its 10th Division I title, while South Dakota State looks to join the Bison in elite company as three-peat playoff winners.

The No. 1 overall seed, however, is Montana State, a program in pursuit of its first national title since 1984. The Bobcats navigated the regular season without a loss and will play all of their games leading up to Frisco at home in Bozeman. Joining Montana State with top eight seeds and thus byes in the 1st Round: 

  1. Montana State
  2. North Dakota State
  3. South Dakota State
  4. South Dakota 
  5. UC Davis
  6. UIW 
  7. Mercer 
  8. Idaho 

That leaves 16 teams facing off in eight games on Saturday, Nov. 30, kicking off the 2024 season's FCS Playoffs. 

No. 16 New Hampshire vs. UT Martin

Red-hot New Hampshire rides a four-game winning streak into the Playoffs, which includes a fourth-quarter comeback against Top 25 opponent Stony Brook and a rivalry game win over Maine. The streak carries the Wildcats into their 16th Playoffs in the last 20 years. 

UT Martin, meanwhile, is in is their second postseason in the last four years, and the program's third all-time. 

All three trips to the postseason for UTM have come under the direction of Jason Simpson. Simpson, now in his 19th year, has built a consistent winner with this season's shared Big South/OVC title marking the Skyhawks' fourth straight. 

Running back Patrick Martin powers the UTM offense, heading into the Playoffs with 1,123 rushing yards for the season and 13 touchdowns. New Hampshire's defense, which coach Rick Santos called "the heartbeat of our team," limited opponents to fewer than four yards per carry and 137.6 rushing yards per game. 

The Wildcats' outstanding pass rush, powered by 2024 Coastal Athletic Association Defensive Player of the Year Josiah Silver, excels at getting into opposing backfields. New Hampshire's defense will look to set the tone, while a potent passing attack with quarterback Seth Morgan and prime target Logan Tomlinson tries to capitalize. UTM ranked No. 109 nationally against the pass at 250.7 yards allowed per game. 

PREDICTION: New Hampshire 28, UT-Martin 20

No. 9 Richmond vs. Lehigh

Before they become conference counterparts next season, when Richmond joins the Patriot League, the Spiders and Mountain Hawks tangle as playoff foes at Robins Stadium. 

Richmond carries the second-longest streak in the FCS into the Playoffs, ripping off 10 straight since an 0-2 start. The Spiders exit the CAA as the conference's first outright champion in five years, combining a prolific rushing offense with one of the most aggressive defenses in the nation. 

FCS sacks leader Jeremiah Grant powers Richmond up front in pursuit of Lehigh's multifaceted backfield. The Mountain Hawks put together their own impressive winning streak to close out the regular season, reeling off five straight including a defeat of perennial Patriot League contender Holy Cross that landed Lehigh in its first postseason since 2017. 

Luke Yoder and Jaden Green have combined for 19 rushing touchdowns and nearly 1,600 yards, while a trio of ball-carriers behind them have all surpassed 200 yards. Richmond's held opponents to 3.9 yards per carry and 127.3 rushing yards per game, then on the other side of the ball ran up nearly 200 yards. Zach Palmer-Smith, the sixth-leading ball-carrier in FCS at 1,275, should power the Spiders to an 11th consecutive win and into the round of 16 for a matchup with Idaho. 

PREDICTION: Richmond 41, Lehigh 14

No. 12 Illinois State vs. SEMO

Illinois State and SEMO face off in Normal with matching 9-3 records but on many different trajectories heading into the Playoffs. 

Illinois State scored its fifth consecutive win in a 35-13 blowout of North Dakota, the Redbirds' third straight win by at least two touchdowns. With running back Wenkers Wright breaking the 1,000-yard mark, Illinois State found the right dynamic on offense to complement a stout defense. 

As Illinois State found its stride late in the season, a SEMO team that appeared to be head-and-shoulders above the class in the Big South/OVC came crashing down in the final weeks. The Redhawks lost a stunner to in-state counterpart Lindenwood on Nov. 9, 24-12, then slipped up in the regular-season finale against fellow playoff team Tennessee State. 

That created a logjam atop the Big South-OVC and bumped a SEMO team that once appeared headed for a potential top-four seed into a difficult, 1st Round road trip. 

The good news for the Redhawks is that they have the playmakers on both sides of the ball to play with anyone, including talented Illinois State. Quarterback Paxton DeLaurent earned Big South-OVC Player of the Year with his 3,520 passing yards and 29 touchdowns. DeLaurent has also been intercepted 10 times, however, and Illinois State's Mark Cannon Jr. and Tye Niekamp have each picked off three passes. 

DeLaurent needs his best performance of the season to power SEMO past this 1st Round matchup. 

PREDICTION: Illinois State 31, SEMO 20

No. 13 Tarleton vs. Drake

Since the expansion of the FCS Playoffs in 2013 extended an automatic berth to the champion of the Pioneer Football League, PFL teams have rarely escaped the 1st Round. San Diego's win over Northern Arizona in 2017 was the last time the Pioneer's champion advanced, and no PFL team has come closer than a 14-point margin in any of the six postseasons since. 

Drake makes its return to the field in 2024 hoping to end the conference's skid. The Bulldogs drew the unfortunate task of visiting the Fargodome to meet North Dakota State last season. This time, they go from meeting the most decorated team in FCS Playoffs history to a program making its first appearance in the dance. 

Tarleton's enjoyed a fast rise since moving up from Div. II in 2021. The Texans have finished above .500 each of the last four seasons, including 8-3 and 9-3 the last two years. They came just eight points away from a perfect record in the United Athletic Conference and 11 wins, dropping late-season league games to Eastern Kentucky (17-13) and Abilene Christian (35-31). 

Although the Texans came painfully short of a potential top seed, those hard-fought matchups should serve them well in a playoff atmosphere. Having the top ball-carrier in FCS, Kayvon Britten who has 1,750 yards and 16 touchdowns, also helps. Tarleton should roll in its first-ever FCS Playoffs game. 

PREDICTION: Tarleton 45, Drake 14

No. 14 Montana vs. Tennessee State

1995 Heisman Trophy winner and former NFL All-Pro running back Eddie George has done a great job steadily building back up a history-rich Tennessee State football program. The Tigers earned a share of the Big South-OVC championship and the program's first FCS Playoffs berth since 2013 with a gutty closing stretch to the regular season, culminating in a 28-21 win over fellow postseason qualifier SEMO. 

For its troubles, Tennessee State is off to Missoula and the frigid conditions typical of a playoff matchup with Montana. A high of 38 degrees awaits the Tigers as they face the 2023 season's national runner-up and a program that's been a perennial championship contender for more than 30 years. 

Montana is averaging 34 points per game behind the multifaceted rushing attack of Eli Gillman (956 yards, 13 touchdowns); Nick Ostmo (769 yards, three touchdowns); and Keali'i Ah Yat (seven touchdowns). Ah Yat and Logan Fife have shared quarterbacking duties effectively, too, passing for 19 touchdowns and 2,665 yards. 

Tennessee State's aggressive defense, which features four players with 10 or more tackles for loss (Chris Walker, Keandre Booker, Sanders Ellis, and Eriq George), needs to dictate the pace early. Quarterback Draylen Ellis has been a solid passer, completing more than 60 percent of his 376 attempts for 2,733 yards and 22 touchdowns, but TSU is not the kind of team looking to get into a shootout. Generating turnovers and jumping on the Griz early is Tennessee State's best hope to move onto the 2nd Round. Otherwise, the Tigers' first playoff appearance under Eddie George could be a short one. 

PREDICTION: Montana 38, Tennessee State 17

No. 11 Villanova vs. Eastern Kentucky

Villanova has advanced to the quarterfinals in each of its last two FCS playoff appearances (2021 and 2023), running into South Dakota State both times. Guess what No. 3 seed likely awaits the Wildcats again if Villanova reaches the quarterfinals a third time in the last four postseasons? 

But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Villanova draws a challenging opening-round match with United Athletic Conference representative Eastern Kentucky, a team that closed the regular season strong to land an at-large bid. 

The Colonels won five straight, the last four by one-score margins, including a 17-13 victory at Tarleton. Eastern Kentucky's make-up is similar to that of Villanova, with each team building from a stout defense. 

Mike Smith Jr. has four interceptions for EKU, Jordon Thomas has broken up 13 passes, and the duo of Maddox Marcellus and Braden Sullivan have each racked up more than 80 tackles. Complementing the team's defense is an offense focused on the ground game. Quarterback Matt Morrissey has paced for more than 2,000 yards, but Josh Carter's 1,106 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns and Brayden Latham's 628 rushing yards set the tone. 

Villanova's outstanding rushing defense behind heat-seeking linebackers Brendan Bell and Shane Hartzell makes for a difficult matchup for ground-based offenses. Points may come at a premium, but expect Villanova's playoff experience and ability to stifle the run more effectively than Eastern Kentucky to decide this 1st-round contest. 

PREDICTION: Villanova 24, Eastern Kentucky 17

No. 10 Rhode Island vs. Central Connecticut State

Welcome back to the Playoffs, Rhode Island. 

At 10-2, the Rams make their first appearance in the postseason since 1985. URI's steady build under coach Jim Fleming peaked this season with a combination of multifaceted offense and tenacious defense. 

Meade Stadium should be rocking for Rhode Island's first playoff game in 39 years — and the Rams should roll against Northeast Conference champion Central Connecticut State. 

The Blue Devils rallied from hitting at 3-5 after losses at Dartmouth and Long Island to close out October, winning their final four games by a combined 23 points. Last among those was a 21-14 defeat of Duquesne, which led the NEC all season and had broken into the Top 25 before the stunning loss in the regular-season finale. 

The many close games CCSU played, with none of its final six games decided by more than 10 points, emulated the routine nail-biters that Rhode Island faced on its way to 10 wins. In fact, of its five losses all season, CCSU four were decided by four points or fewer. 

The Blue Devils also feature the NEC Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year in running back Elijah Howard and defensive back Kimal Clark. Between the strong finish, the close margin in defeats, and the variety of talent on both sides of the ball, CCSU's record belies the team's quality. 

The Blue Devils have the ability to play Rhode Island tough but look for running back Malik Grant and linebacker AJ Pena to come through in big ways as they often have this season. 

PREDICTION: Rhode Island 27, CCSU 17

No. 15 Abilene Christian vs. Northern Arizona

After winning a pair of NAIA national championships and becoming one of the most consistently strong programs in Div. II during the 2000s, Abilene Christian takes a historic step as a Div. I program with its first FCS Playoffs appearance. 

The Wildcats secured the United Athletic Conference's outright championship, knocking off fellow playoff team Tarleton in the penultimate week of the regular season. ACU cost itself by losing in the regular-season finale to non-conference opponent Stephen F. Austin, however, and ended up with a tough 1st Round draw as a result. 

Northern Arizona emerged as the surprise of a loaded Big Sky Conference, going 6-2 in league play with a 30.7-point per game offense. Quarterback Ty Pennington followed NAU coach Brian Wright from Pittsburg State and flourished. Pennington won Big Sky Conference Newcomer of the Year for his 2,123-yard passing, 432-yard rushing campaign with 20 total interceptions and no interceptions. 

The Lumberjacks defense features one of the strongest secondaries in the nation, placing three defensive backs on the All-Big Sky Team. That secondary makes for an intriguing matchup with Abilene Christian's prolific passing attack. The Wildcats ranked fourth in the FCS in passing yardage at 324.6 yards per game. Quarterback Maverick McIvor threw for 29 touchdowns and just five interceptions and the Wildcats effectively mixed in a strong rushing game behind 1,000-yard rusher Sam Hicks. 

ACU can score — and the Wildcats also give up points. This one could end up being the highest-scoring matchup of the 1st Round. 

PREDICTION: Northern Arizona 38, Abilene Christian 35

What Are The Top Conferences In The FCS?

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See the FCS conferences ranked using a unique system that was originally developed for chess.

When Do The 2024 FCS College Football Playoffs Start?

The FCS playoffs begin on November 30, 2024.

The 2024 Division I FCS College Football Championship game will be played on January 6, 2025, at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

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