Elon vs. Richmond Prediction & More CAA Week 11 Picks
Elon vs. Richmond Prediction & More CAA Week 11 Picks
Conference championship contenders Elon and Richmond clash as the Coastal Athletic Association football season hits the stretch run.
Playoff football begins in earnest this week in a heated race for the Coastal Athletic Association championship.
Two of the five teams tied atop the CAA standings heading into Week 11, Elon and Richmond, square off in a de facto postseason elimination game.
"For the last few weeks, it's been we're playing [in] the Playoffs," Richmond coach Russ Huesman said. "Each week we've got to win to have a chance to be in the Playoffs, so this week is another playoff game for us against Elon, and it just so happens the CAA championship's involved in it. So we don't really shy away from what we talk about."
The Spiders return from their bye week riding a four-game winning streak and on one of the most interesting trajectories of any team in college football this season.
Coming off an appearance in the 2022 FCS Playoffs and contention for last season's CAA crown, Richmond opened 2023 ranked in the Top 25. A season-opening loss to Morgan State and a lackluster showing against Big Ten Conference opponent Michigan State left the Spiders in an early-season hole, and any momentum gained for a blowout of Delaware State and thrilling win at Stony Brook faded with a 31-14 home loss to Hampton.
Forecasting a Richmond team that sat at 2-3 and that had scored 20 points or fewer in 4-of-5 games heading into October for the playoff conversation by mid-November may have seemed a stretch five weeks ago. But the Spiders completely turned their season around beginning with a 42-31 defeat of Maine.
Since then, Richmond has scored an average of 35.75 points per game and reignited its prospects of a return to the Playoffs.
While the trying first month makes for a more difficult road to the postseason — the Spiders likely need to reach eight wins to earn a bid, which means winning out — those initial struggles may have been vital to shaping Richmond's identity now.
"We had some changes maybe in scheme, or maybe putting who where, but it came down to an attitude," wide receiver Nick DeGennaro said at Wednesday's media availability. "How the season went in the beginning was beneficial for us now, because we're ready for it. That translates to even in-game adversity, because we've been through a lot this season."
DeGennero's production has been part of the turnaround. Richmond's most active pass-catcher has 24 grabs during the win streak, scored five of his eight touchdowns in this stretch, and has a pair of 100-plus-yard games.
Meanwhile, the Spiders offense gets a boost in Week 11 with quarterback Cam Coleman back in the lineup. Coleman's 365-yard passing performance against Maine provided the jump-start Richmond needed on that side of the ball, and the freshman sharing reps with Kyle Wickersham has proven effective.
The Spiders defense has locked in at the same time, holding the last three opponents to 40 combined points and allowing none more than 17. It's a trio of teams featuring two of the CAA's top quarterbacks, no less, in Rhode Island's Kasim Hill and Campbell's Hajj-Malik Williams.
Hill threw for 367 yards, but in a case of bend-don't-break, Richmond allowed him just one touchdown. Aaron Banks came away with an interception of the Rams quarterback. Wayne Galloway and Trae Tomlinson each intercepted Campbell's Williams to punctuate a day the Spiders limited the Camels quarterback to just 173 yards.
Richmond's defense will try to continue clicking against an Elon offense coming off its best performance of the season. A healthy Matthew Downing returned at quarterback last week and exploded for 352 yards and three touchdowns in the Phoenix's 33-27 of Delaware.
Elon's win at The Tub threw the CAA on its head in the final stretch, knocking the last league-unbeaten from its perch to force the current, five-game logjam.
In addition to Downing's electric performance passing the ball, the Phoenix defense forced three turnovers between a Jaidyn Denis interception and forced fumbles by Cazeem Moore and Jake Marion. With both offense and defense making plays, Elon's special teams — or "Wefense," as the Phoenix it call it — came through with Chandler Brayboy's long kick returns, Jack Berkowitz's four made field goals and Kyle Romenick twice pinning Delaware inside its own 20.
"(Special teams coordinator and outside linebackers coach) Milo Austin does a great job creating that culture and that buy-in as a program, and he brought the term Wefense to us," Phoenix head coach Tony Trisciani said. "WE played 56 players in that game on Saturday, and a lot of those guys are on those Wefense units as well as O and D. There's just buy-in with the whole program right now, and it really paid off for us on Saturday with the job that we did."
The two surging teams collide at Robins Stadium in the last kickoff of Week 11, but the first kickoff in the CAA's playoff season.
PREDICTION: Elon 27, Richmond 24
New Hampshire at Monmouth
Two of the nation's most exciting playmakers and absolute best running backs in the Football Championship Subdivision take center stage on the Jersey Shore. New Hampshire's Dylan Laube and Monmouth's Jaden Shirden have both routinely wowed audiences throughout their careers, and each heads into Week 11 with some noteworthy recent plaudits.
Laube was formally invited to the East-West Shrine Bowl this week, one of the top showcases for NFL draft hopefuls.
Congratulations to @dylan_laube on his Official Invitation to the East-West Shrine Bowl‼️😼 pic.twitter.com/7ar3AWmByP
— New Hampshire Football (@UNH_Football) November 8, 2023
Shirden, meanwhile, is moving closer to becoming the first player to lead the FCS in rushing in back-to-back seasons since the 1990s. His `149.3-yard per game output is nearly 27 yards more per contest than the subdivision's next-most productive back, Desmond Reed of Western Carolina; and Shirden's 1,344 total rushing yards outpace Butler's Jyran Mitchell by 131 going into the penultimate week.
With the "CAA Barry Sanders," as New Hampshire called Shirden on one side, and the nation's most dynamic all-purpose back Laube on the other, Saturday's contest should be a must-watch for fans of explosive offensive football.
And that's all before factoring in quarterback play. New Hampshire's Max Brosmer continues to lead the nation in passing yardage, coming into Week 11 just shy of 3,000 for the campaign. Monmouth's Marquez McCray is coming off a 22-for-27, 323-yard and four-touchdown performance in last week's blowout of Stony Brook.
Points will not be in short supply at Kessler Stadium.
PREDICTION: New Hampshire 45, Monmouth 41
Towson at Villanova
Another pair of offenses freshly removed from prolific performances meet on the Main Line. Villanova has climbed to just beyond the top 10 of the Top 25 and is building its playoff resume with four straight wins, the most recent of which was a 45-33 defeat of New Hampshire.
The Week 11 win was Villanova's second consecutive game scoring more than 40 points, and the Wildcats' third effort in four CAA outings notching at least 37.
"It was about as back-and-forth a game as I can remember being part of in a long time," Villanova coach Mark Ferrante said. "It was really nip-and-tuck until about the last seven or so minutes when we hit the long one to [Rayjuon] Pringle."
🕺 Nifty moves from Rayjuon Pringle after the beautiful pass from @r_c_w4 and it's another #NovaNation touchdown @NovaFootball | @CAAFootball pic.twitter.com/ReTkaJ4sRo
— FloFootball (@FloFootball) November 4, 2023
A 68-yard pass from Connor Watkins to Pringle in the fourth quarter was the last in a spell of Villanova scoring three touchdowns in just a little more than 12 minutes of game time. The sequence included an 18-yard TD Ayo-Durojaiye touchdown reception from Watkins and Watkins running in a six-yard score.
Watkins' play has been outstanding of late, and so has the ball-carrying from running back Jalen Jackson. With the Wildcats firing both in the run and pass, they'll try to keep rolling against upset-minded Towson.
The Tigers have already played spoiler a few times in coach Pete Shinnick's first year at the helm, stunning New Hampshire in an overtime shootout and mounting a dizzying second-half rally at William & Mary. They aim for another impressive road performance after last week's 42-32 win over North Carolina A&T.
Towson's offense got rolling against at A&T after struggling against Delaware the week prior. Nathan Kent threw for 263 yards and two touchdowns, and Devin Matthews scored three touchdowns.
No question that Towson has the offensive firepower to keep pace with the CAA's most explosive offenses. Attacking a quality Villanova defense with linebacker Brendan Bell playing as well as anyone in the country will determine if the Tigers can score another major road victory.
PREDICTION: Villanova 34, Towson 17
UAlbany at Stony Brook
This year's Battle for the Golden Apple won't necessarily guarantee a playoff bid for UAlbany, in pursuit of its first postseason bid since 2019. But if the Great Danes can claim the Golden Apple Trophy in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2018 and 2019, they'll be about as close to locked into the Playoffs as possible pending Week 12 results.
Eight wins typically mark the milestone teams from the CAA need to reach in order to qualify for the postseason. While UAlbany plays a 12-game regular-season schedule, an eighth win should still have the Great Danes feeling pretty good heading into the season finale vs. Monmouth.
Not that Stony Brook needs any additional motivation in a rivalry game, but the Seawolves can spoil UAlbany's outlook dramatically with a win on Saturday. It wouldn't be the first time a team near the bottom of the CAA upended another in the playoff hunt in this series' recent history, either.
UAlbany's 25-23 win in 2018 sent Stony Brook on the road for the opening round of the Playoffs, and provided the springboard for the Great Danes into their breakthrough 2019.
PREDICTION: UAlbany 42, Stony Brook 13
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