CAA Notebook: FCS Playoffs Projections & A CAA Championship Logjam
CAA Notebook: FCS Playoffs Projections & A CAA Championship Logjam
With two weeks remaining in the season, the FCS Playoffs has its first automatic bid and a whole lot of chaos elsewhere — especially the CAA.
On the same Saturday that Furman became the first team to officially punch its ticket to the FCS Playoffs, the Coastal Athletic Association fell into even more chaos for the final two-week stretch.
Furman claimed the Southern Conference championship in Week 10, holding off a valiant effort from Chattanooga to earn the first automatic bid. The Paladins are headed to consecutive postseasons for the first time since appearing in three straight from 2004 through 2006, and they should have company in the 2023 by the end of Week 11.
#FUAllTheTime pic.twitter.com/mQR1iDzIGa
— Furman Football (@PaladinFootball) November 4, 2023
It won't be from the CAA, however.
The conference's last remaining team undefeated in league play, Delaware, fell 33-27 at home to Elon. The decision sends the CAA into the final two weeks with an incredible five-team tie atop the conference. And it's a quintet including Elon, which is very much living up to the moniker Phoenix, rising from the ashes of having been 3-4 just a few weeks ago.
"Our preparation during the week, our execution and our fight. Those are the three big things that we hang our hat on," Elon coach Tony Trisciani said.
The Phoenix played arguably their best game of the season against a Delaware team that came in looking capable of fighting for a top-two overall seed down the stretch. Elon limited the Blue Hens to 72 yards rushing from a tenacious all-around defensive effort, spearheaded by Caleb Curtain.
The do-everything defensive back Curtain continued to make his case for All-American nominations with nine tackles including a sack. Brandon Tyson, Dylan Tucker and Cazeem Moore also recorded sacks, with Moore forcing a fumble, and Jaidyn Denis was excellent against the pass with two break-ups and a pick.
Elon's passing offense was at its best yet this year with Matthew Downing throwing for 352 yards and three touchdowns to three different targets: Chandler Brayboy, Johncarlos Miller and Jordan Bonner. Brayboy and Miller both eclipsed the century mark.
Elon's win and Delaware's loss coincided with UAlbany delivering maybe it's most dominant defensive performance in a fall that's been marked with standout performances from the Great Danes; and with Villanova's offense firing on all cylinders at New Hampshire.
Richmond, meanwhile, was idle, already sitting at 5-1.
Going over tiebreaker scenarios right now is fruitless, and possibly headache-inducing with so many teams still in the mix for the championship. Elon has the win over Delaware but fell to fellow one-loss team Villanova, which dropped a decision to UAlbany.
Villanova still gets Delaware in the final week, while Elon visits Richmond in Week 11. Those two games are guaranteed to provide some clarity. In the meantime, the CAA could not be any more wild.
Big Sky
Automatic: Montana (3)
At-Large: Idaho (4), Montana State (5), Sacramento State
On The Bubble: UC Davis
Montana's rout of Sacramento State in Week 10 set up the Griz for a pretty clear path to the Big Sky championship and automatic bid to the Playoffs: Handle Portland State in Week 11, and a win in the Brawl of the Wild against Montana State seals it. Montana already holds the head-to-head win over Idaho, which is the Big Sky's third team tied in first place at 5-1.
Outside of the trio of Montana, Montana State and Idaho, attrition has worn the Big Sky down for the Playoffs pretty dramatically. Sacramento State is in fine shape should it beat Cal Poly and UC Davis to finish out, but a win over the Mustangs and loss to the rival Aggies in Week 12 complicates the Hornets' Selection Sunday.
For UC Davis, beating Sacramento State is essential to getting into the postseason.
Big South-OVC
Automatic: UT-Martin
At-Large: None
On The Bubble: None
The Notebook currently projects UT-Martin as the Big South-OVC automatic bid, but the Skyhawks could use an assist from one of either Tennessee Tech or Charleston Southern down the stretch. TTU and CSU are the final two opponents of Gardner-Webb, which has come roaring back to life with three straight wins by a combined eight points — including a 38-34 defeat of UT Martin on Oct. 28.
UTM has lingered in or just beyond the Top 25 most of the season, and should the Skyhawks close out at 9-2, it would be hard to imagine them being left out of the field. That means bubble teams will want to see GWU slip up in the coming weeks.
CAA
Automatic: Delaware (7)
At-Large: UAlbany, Villanova
On The Bubble: Elon, Richmond, Rhode Island
No conference heads into the final two weeks with more teams still in the championship picture than the CAA. The five-team race to the finish guarantees a thrilling couple of weeks.
UAlbany, Villanova and Delaware all seem like playoff locks with wins in the coming. Each could have eight on the season, which has historically been the magic number to ensure CAA contenders a berth in the field.
The Great Danes travel to Stony Brook in the Battle for the Golden Apple, Villanova hosts Towson, and Delaware visits Campbell.
Meanwhile, Elon and Richmond's showdown at Robins Stadium functions as a de facto elimination game. The losing side is all but out of the championship picture, and neither is likely to secure an at-large invitation without winning out. That makes this arguably the most high-stakes game on the entire Week 11 docket.
Rhode Island is still alive with games against North Carolina A&T and at Towson still to come. Rams' victories in each would elevate URI to seven regular-season victories for a third consecutive season, and a three-game winning streak to close out may signal to the selection committee this is a team getting hot at the right time.
MVFC
Automatic: South Dakota State (1)
At-Large: South Dakota (6), North Dakota, North Dakota State, Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa (8), Youngstown State
On The Bubble: Illinois State
Reigning national champion South Dakota State asserted its place atop the Missouri Valley Football Conference with a __ romp in the Dakota Marker Game against North Dakota State. The Jackrabbits have now run off three straight against what had for so long been the most dominant program in FCS history.
Although it's tough sledding to the top eight and a national seed, NDSU is almost assuredly in the field with a win in one of its next two. However, the Bison fight a Southern Illinois team battling for its own postseason prospects before visiting a surging Northern Iowa.
The Panthers' three-game winning streak has propelled them into a tie for second in the MVFC with South Dakota, and in the hunt for seeding. UNI should have no trouble with Indiana State before heading into the NDSU matchup with that all-important quarterfinal homefield advantage on the line.
Youngstown State gets a crack at home vs. South Dakota State, and a win over the Jackrabbits would pretty safely put the Penguins in. South Dakota visits North Dakota in Week 11 for a game that if the Coyotes win, likely assures them a top-eight seed — and which North Dakota might need to prevent having to sweat out Selection Sunday.
NEC
Automatic: Duquesne
At-Large: None
On The Bubble: None
Duquesne's fourth straight win in a 34-26 nail-biter at Wagner made the math real easy for the Dukes going into Week 11: Beat Merrimack, and Duquesne is dancing.
Patriot
Automatic: Lafayette
At-Large: None
On The Bubble: Holy Cross
Holy Cross played its third consecutive one-score decision in Week 10, escaping a two-win Lehigh team. The victory was not especially inspiring for a team that has been a playoff fixture in recent years, but lacks the signature wins necessary to earn an at-large bid this year.
However, with Lafayette losing in overtime to Colgate, Holy Cross has a path to the at-large bid.
HUGE WIN!!! Coach Dakosty's thoughts on our victory over #16 Lafayette.🏈🦾👀🙌
— Colgate Football (@ColgateFB) November 5, 2023
Work ongoing as we prep for LEHIGH this Saturday!!
𝘍𝘐𝘎𝘏𝘛! 𝘍𝘐𝘎𝘏𝘛!! 𝑭𝑰𝑮𝑯𝑻!!#GoGate | #ThreeForTheGate pic.twitter.com/RuPMVadIsI
Should the Crusaders beat Georgetown in Week 12, and Lafayette lose to either Fordham this week or at Lehigh the next, Holy Cross is guaranteed to be in the field. Lafayette needs only to win both to ensure its place in the Playoffs by virtue of owning the head-to-head win vs. HC.
Pioneer
Automatic: Davidson
At-Large: None
On The Bubble: None
Another week, another couple of wins for Davidson and Drake. Both are 6-0 in the Pioneer Football League and do not face each other, so the conference's one and only playoff bid could come down to this tiebreaker.
Southern
Automatic: Furman* (2)
At-Large: Western Carolina, Mercer
On The Bubble: Chattanooga, Samford
Furman is the first team in and needs only to beat VMI and a struggling Wofford team to likely lock up the No. 2 overall seed. That means home-field all the way to Frisco for the Paladins, looking to become the first SoCon team in the National Championship Game since Appalachian State won the last of three straight titles in 2007.
As for the rest of the SoCon, it's a difficult playoff picture to parse. Chattanooga owns the head-to-head win over Mercer, beating the Bears on the road on Oct. 14, 22-10. That was part of a three-game winning streak that sent the Mocs surging into the Furman matchup. With a loss to North Alabama in Week 1, and a non-conference trip to Alabama likely guaranteeing Chattanooga a final 7-4 mark, the Mocs may end up on the wrong side of the bubble.
Western Carolina should close at 8-3 with a head-to-head win at Chattanooga. Mercer's season finale is Week 11 against a Samford team that's come along in recent weeks and has an outside shot of getting into the playoff picture; the Bulldogs close out with two teams very much in the at-large picture between Mercer and non-conference opponent UT Martin.
Should Mercer handle Samford, however, the Bears close the season at 8-3 with a win at Western Carolina and no bad losses like Chattanooga's to North Alabama.
Southland
Automatic: Nicholls
At-Large: UIW
On The Bubble: None
In the shocker of the week — maybe the season — Nicholls dominated UIW to move into first place atop the Southland Conference. The Colonels now only need to beat Lamar in Week 11 to secure the Southland's automatic bid, which creates a potential bid-stealing scenario.
MATHEWS CALLS GAME.#EarnedEveryDay x @Nicholls_FB pic.twitter.com/BButT8joX9
— Southland Conference (@SouthlandSports) November 4, 2023
UIW spent almost the entire regular season ranked in the top 10, and despite last week's setback, should finish with nine wins officially. However, the Cardinals were scheduled to face Northwestern State this week, a game that's been canceled due to NSU shuttering its season. So the question then becomes does a nearly season-long top 10 team that advanced to the semifinals a year ago miss the Playoffs altogether at 9-2?
It seems unlikely.
UAC
Automatic: Austin Peay
At-Large: None
On The Bubble: Central Arkansas
Winners of seven straight, including overtime decisions in two of its three outings, Austin Peay is in control of its postseason destiny. The Colonels need to beat Utah Tech in Week 11 before a showdown that may decide the inaugural UAC postseason berth. Central Arkansas visits Fortera Stadium in Week 12 with a chance to force a tie atop the league.
Related Content
- Highlights: North Carolina A&T vs Richmond | 2024 CAA Football
Oct 7, 2024
- Villanova, Delaware And More CAA Schools Brought The Intensity In Week 6 | 2024 CAA Football
Oct 7, 2024
- Replay: NC A&T vs Richmond | Oct 5 @ 2 PM
Oct 5, 2024
- Highlights: Richmond vs Elon | CAA Football 2024
Sep 28, 2024
- Replay: Richmond vs Elon | Sep 28 @ 2 PM
Sep 28, 2024
- Highlights: Rhode Island vs Hampton | 2024 CAA Football
Oct 7, 2024
- Highlights: Delaware vs Monmouth | 2024 CAA Football
Oct 7, 2024
- FCS Football Rankings in Week 7: 3 New Teams Sneak Into The Top 10
Oct 7, 2024
- 3 CAA Football Week 6 Takeaways: Towson Emphatically Enters The Fray
Oct 7, 2024